Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 041837
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
237 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12 UTC TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING FROM THE SE
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N90W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W.
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE AXIS. THIS TROUGH WILL
EXIT OFF TO THE NW BY TUE MORNING. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IS ADVANCING
INTO THE SE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TOWARD
THE NE GULF SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGHS.
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE IN THE SE GULF ALONG WITH SEAS
TO 8 FT NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WILL DIMINISH BY TUE MORNING AS THE
PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY WED MORNING WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING DOMINATING
THE GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL START OUT 4 TO 6 FT
W OF 90W WED MORNING AND 2 TO 4 FT E OF 90W...DIMINISHING TO 1 TO
3 FT BY THU MORNING...AND THEN 2 FT OR LESS BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF. WINDS WILL PULSE
TO FRESH LEVELS ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NW YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEK.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12 UTC TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SURFACE TROUGHING IS LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHICH CAN BE
ATTRIBUTED TO AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT. MEANWHILE BROAD AND
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGHING REACHES FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT EXIT
REGION OF A JET STREAK ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION ON ANOTHER JET STREAK ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING A SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BETWEEN GRAND CAYMAN AND CENTRAL CUBA EASTWARD TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE THIS MORNING WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL CUBA WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND LOWER PRES ALONG NW COLOMBIA.
THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. RESULTANT SEAS ARE 8 TO
11 FT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TAFB NWPS LOCAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THIS AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES
TO EXPAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 13 FT AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12 UTC ECMWF BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 12 UTC TAFB NWPS FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE
TODAY...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER MOST PARTICULARLY WITH
THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF LOW PRES IN VICINITY OF BAHAMAS.

JET DYNAMICS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NE
GULF THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...CUBA AND JUST OFFSHORE OF S
FLORIDA. MEANWHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS TRANSITIONING TO A TROUGH
FROM 25N65W TO FAR EASTERN CUBA WHILE ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING INTO WESTERN CUBA. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE
BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING AND THE TROUGHING. MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
TROUGH ALONG WITH MAINLY 4 TO 7 FT SEAS...EXCEPT IN THE N CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE BASIN WHERE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL 7 TO 9 FT
WHICH REMAINS 2 TO 3 FT ABOVE MODEL WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST ISSUE FOR TUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. DISAGREEMENT PERSISTS IN MODEL OUTPUT
REGARDING THE TIMING...POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES. THE
GFS APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
ISSUES WHICH IS LEADING TO A STRONGER SOLUTION...AND ALSO MUCH AND
EVEN CLOSER TO THE SE UNITED STATES COAST COMPARED TO THE LATEST
ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE NEW 12 UTC ECMWF IS A GOOD
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND MORE EASTWARD UKMET SOLUTION
HOWEVER IT HAS TRENDED MORE TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES
SOME STRENGTHENING WED INTO THU AS THE LOW DRIFTS N OF THE
AREA...BUT STILL WELL BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS AND CANADIAN
SOLUTIONS. NEEDLESS TO SAY MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS LOW
AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE MORE CONSERVATIVE
ECMWF SOLUTION. ELSEWHERE MODERATE SE FLOW PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH/LOW.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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