Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 051415
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
715 AM PDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.


NO SIG CHANGES IN STORE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE TO THE ONGOING FCST
PKG. 4KM NAM SUGGESTS GALE FORCE WINDS CREEPING INTO THE FAR ERN
PORTIONS OF THE PZZ825 JUST AFTR 00Z THIS AFTN/EVE WHICH IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY THE LTST HRRR AND 06Z GFS. OVRNGT SHIFT XTND AREAL
CVRG OF GALES TO INCL PZZ820 WHICH ALSO LOOKS REASONABLE.

WITH A LESSER DEGREE OF CONFDC -- CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY TSTM
BFR UPR LOW AND S/W TROF CLEAR E OF THE PZ5 WTRS. WILL ADD CHANCE
OF TSTMS BACK INTO THE GRIDS/TEXT FOR THIS AFTN/EVE.


-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE AN ASCAT OUTTAGE. AT 06Z A 35 KT RPT
ALONG THE CA CST IN THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS MATCHES UP WITH WELL
WITH THE INITIAL 30M GFS FCST FROM THE 00Z RUN. DURING THE DAY
TODAY EXPECT THE AREA OF GALES TO SLOWLY CREEP WESTWARD AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS ALONG THE N AND CENTRAL CA CST. THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN ALONG THE W CST IS EXPECTED TO CONTIUE DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE RIDGE/TROF COMBINATION REMAINS IN PLACE.
BY FRI THE GRADIENT WILL HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH TO CAUSE WINDS TO
DIP BLO GALE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW DAMPING
THE RIDGE A BIT. FOR THE MOST PART THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE GFS/CMC FORECAST A LOW TO
FORM ON THE FRONTAL BNDRY W OF THE NRN CA WATERS. THE CMC EVEN
BRINGS GALES INTO PZ5 WATERS AS THE LOW LIFTS NE. THIS DOESNT SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT. THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLN
DOESNT INDICATE ANY SORT OF LOW FORMING. THE GFS SOLN KEEPS THE
LOW CENTER W OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS...ALTHOUGH THIS DOES HAVE
SOME IMPACT WITH THE GRADIENT...MAINLY INDICATING STRONGER WINDS
ACROSS PZ5 WATERS IN NRLY FLOW. WILL CONTINUE CONTINUITY FROM
PRIOR PACKAGE AND USE THE ECMWF SOLN BEGINNING 06Z SUN WHEN POP
THE WIND GRIDS. PRIOR TO THAT TIME WILL POP USING THE 30M GFS.

SEAS...FOR THE MOST PART THE ENP IS DONING A GOOD JOB...ALTHOUGH
WILL BUMP SEAS UP A FOOT OR SO IN AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS...40
KT.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE WED INTO WED NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.

$$

.FORECASTER COLLINS/SHAW. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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