Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 031728
SWODY2
SPC AC 031727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN NM INTO WRN TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
AND EXTENDING EWD TOWARD SRN LAKE MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO IOWA AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE BASE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NERN STATES WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER QUEBEC. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD FROM LOWER MI INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN AND
DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS TO THE S WITH 50S TO NEAR 60 F DEWPOINTS.

TO THE S...A LOWER LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS
AZ AND NM WITH SWLY FLOW AND HEIGHT FALLS GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO
THE SRN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD. BOTH THE STATIONARY FRONT AS WELL
AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN WAVE WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

...SERN NM INTO WRN TX...
SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS AS HEATING MIXES
OUT THE CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS SERN NM AND SWRN TX. SCATTERED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP WHERE DEEP MIXING OCCURS ON THE WRN FRINGE OF
THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS. VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT STRONGLY FAVOR
SUPERCELLS...AND A STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE HAIL IN THE 1.75 TO 2.00
INCH RANGE. STORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING INTO WRN TX WITH
THE SUPPORT OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

...CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL IA...
ISOLATED EARLY-DAY STORMS MAY BE ONGOING NEAR THE FRONT OVER NEB AND
IA BUT THE GREATEST THREAT WILL EXIST NEAR THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
WHEN INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT PERSISTENT LIFT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND AN INCREASING SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALL WORK TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
CLUSTERS OF STORMS ACROSS KS...NEB...IA AND NRN MO. BOTH LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE
ISOLATED/MARGINAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED EWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM IL
INTO OH.

..JEWELL.. 05/03/2015



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