Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 040322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040322
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-040445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN NEB/NERN KS/NWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 127...

VALID 040322Z - 040445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 127 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY NEAR-TERM SEVERE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL SHOULD
DIMINISH TO A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND RISK OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...OVERALL TSTM INTENSITY HAS NOCTURNALLY WANED GIVEN
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE COOLED 8-12 DEG F FROM LATE AFTERNOON
AND MODEST MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 8-9 G/KG IN AREA 00Z RAOBS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY LARGE MLCIN. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER WLYS ABOVE 2 KM AGL...CURRENT
LONE SUPERCELL OVER NEMAHA COUNTY NEB APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS
OF DECOUPLING FROM THE SURFACE. A PERSISTENT 50-KT S/SWLY LLJ COULD
SUSTAIN BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION ATOP REMNANT W/E-ORIENTED
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NEAR THE SE NEB/NE KS BORDER. STEEP
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RATES WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND RISK.

..GRAMS.. 05/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40469705 40499624 40509500 40499460 40309450 40119465
            39979516 39899582 39919638 40009661 40129696 40259707
            40469705



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