Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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000
FXUS65 KABQ 202111
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
311 PM MDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND...BUT
NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE HORIZON. MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL BE
LATE THIS WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK RIDGING TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. A STORM THAT WILL ORGANIZE
OFF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY AND CROSS NM
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUNDAY. MOST ACTIVE PERIOD AFTER
TODAY WILL BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LEAST ACTIVE DAYS PROBABLY
TUESDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IS PRODUCING PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BUT THE LOWER LEVELS
ARE SUPER DRY...THUS NOT MUCH RAIN REACHING THE GROUND...BUT
LOTS OF GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING NEAR THESE
SHOWERS. PROBABLY A LITTLE THUNDER AND LIGHTNING AS WELL.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL POSITION ITSELF OVER NM ON
TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL COVER LESS OF THE AREA AND MAINLY FOCUS
ON THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES
AND BE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL MOST PLACES.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW GETTING
UNDERWAY...THEN STRENGTHENING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE...PEAKING ON FRIDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY PRODUCING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST TO THE TX
BORDER. WE THEN LOOK WEST FOR THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IN THE FORM
OF A CLOSED LOW. THIS STORM WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST AND MOVE INCLUDE THURSDAY. IT WILL CROSS NM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS. THE CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. REGARDLESS THE MOST ACTIVE TIME
LOOKS TO BE THE LATTER PORTION OF THIS WEEK. BUT THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING PRETTY QUICK...REDUCING CHANCES FOR SOME DECENT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER NM SATURDAY
ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT UPSTREAM STORM ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE A FAST MOVER AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL FAVOR THE NORTH. WARMING ON SATURDAY WILL LEVEL OFF SUNDAY.
CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY/MID EVENING
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE THE
NON WETTING KIND. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE
CELLS WILL TEND TO MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WOULD BE ISOLATED.

THE OVERALL WEATHER TREND THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DRIER AND
WARMER. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE AROUND FAVORING THE NORTHERN TIER TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DRIER SIDE. SOME LOCALIZED RED
FLAG CRITERIA COULD BE MET ACROSS THE SOCORRO COUNTY PORTION OF
ZONE 106 LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN BREEZES PICK UP
BUT A LITTLE MORE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
PACIFIC/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOW. THIS WOULD BE COUPLED WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HAINES 4/5 READINGS AND HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS. OVERALL...THIS WEEK DOESNT APPEAR TO BE A BIG WEEK FOR
WIDESPREAD/LONG DURATION RED FLAG CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY
GOOD ABOUT THAT. A MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PROVIDE SOME SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES. DRIER SHOWERS/STORMS...FASTER
MOVING WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A HYBRID
DAY WITH STRONGER WIND FLOW COMING FROM VARIOUS SOURCES. THESE
STORMS WOULD TEND TO BE ON THE DRIER SIDE AND WOULD IMPACT DRIER
AREAS FOUND ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.

RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS IS STILL EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AS PART OF THE
LOW WASHES OUT TO THE EAST BUT ANOTHER PORTION OF THE LOW RE
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST. BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW THIS TREND ALTHOUGH
DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE ACTUAL LOW CENTER POSITIONS. THE SECONDARY
LOW SHOULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF NM DURING THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE
SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROSPECTS...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE
NORTHERN TIER. IT DOESNT APPEAR THE AIRMASS WOULD BE UNUSUALLY DRY
BUT NOT LOOKING AT UNUSUAL MOISTURE AT THIS TIME EITHER. CURRENTLY
PROJECTING SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZIER
W/NW FLOW DURING THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG COMPARED TO
FRIDAY. PERHAPS SOME SPORADIC RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
ALTHOUGH HAINES VALUES APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE SO AN
ISSUANCE MAY NOT BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE EAST. 50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS A BIT AT ODDS CONCERNING SH/TS COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. BASED ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY WILL GO WITH
A MORE BULLISH SOLUTION WITH SOME IMPACTS AT MOST OF THE TERMINAL
SITES. BASED ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY TRENDS...SUSPECT
GUP/ABQ/AEG/SAF/LVS AND EVENTUALLY TCC WILL BE IMPACTED. GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH SH/TS PASSAGE.
DECIDED TO GO WITH VCSH AT THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES BUT COULD SEE
SOME LONGER PERIOD IMPACTS AT SOME LOCATIONS. WILL MONITOR
ACCORDINGLY. IT APPEARS THAT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST SHOT AT SOME IMPACTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  36  73  39  72 /   5   0   5   0
DULCE...........................  27  68  29  69 /  10   5   5  10
CUBA............................  33  70  35  69 /  10   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  30  71  31  69 /   5   0   5   0
EL MORRO........................  35  66  34  64 /   5   5   5   0
GRANTS..........................  30  70  30  69 /   5   5   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  36  68  37  65 /   5   0   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  42  77  43  75 /   5   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  26  61  30  65 /  10  10  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  42  66  46  66 /  10  10  10  10
PECOS...........................  37  67  40  66 /  10  20  10   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  25  64  28  68 /  20  10  10  30
RED RIVER.......................  28  54  31  57 /  20  20  20  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  22  57  26  59 /  20  20  20  40
TAOS............................  28  67  31  68 /  10  10  10  20
MORA............................  32  64  38  65 /  20  30  10  20
ESPANOLA........................  39  71  41  73 /   5   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  40  66  43  66 /  10  10   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  36  72  38  73 /   5   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  46  73  48  74 /   5   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  46  75  47  77 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  42  76  44  78 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  76  46  78 /   5   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  40  78  40  80 /   5   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  46  75  48  77 /   5   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  47  79  45  80 /  10   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  68  44  72 /  10   5   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  42  72  44  73 /   5   5   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  31  69  34  69 /  10   5   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  36  69  39  69 /  10  10   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  41  70  43  71 /  10   5   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  45  76  46  76 /   5   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  41  72  42  72 /   5  10   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  36  64  40  61 /  30  20  20  30
RATON...........................  32  71  36  68 /  20  20  20  40
SPRINGER........................  35  72  39  69 /  20  20  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  34  68  38  69 /  10  20  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  39  73  45  67 /  40  10  20  40
ROY.............................  36  72  40  70 /  20  20  10  20
CONCHAS.........................  45  76  47  76 /  20  10  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  43  75  45  77 /  10  10  10   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  42  79  46  80 /  20  10  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  42  77  46  80 /  20   0  10   5
PORTALES........................  44  77  48  80 /  20   0  10   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  44  77  48  81 /  10   5  10   0
ROSWELL.........................  45  84  47  84 /   5   0  10   0
PICACHO.........................  44  76  47  77 /   5  10   5   0
ELK.............................  42  72  46  72 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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