Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 261953
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
353 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY OVERSPREAD THE
REGION EARLY THIS WEEK PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PROVIDE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON MONDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA...AND NORTHWEST OHIO. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REACH INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER
50S...ALTHOUGH COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL.

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME STRATOCU TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST INDIANA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AFTER DIURNAL VFR CU THIS
AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO STRONGER VORT MAX DROPPING OUT
OF SOUTHERN ONTARIO FOR MONDAY MORNING. MVFR ARE A CIGS LATER
MONDAY MORNING TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...BUT
WILL HOLD WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE 18Z TAFS. IN TERMS OF
WINDS...LAKE ENHANCEMENT HAS LED TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO 15-20 KNOTS AT KSBN WITH MIXED LAYER SUPPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY EVENING...BUT
MODERATE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT SHOULD MAINTAIN WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


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