Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 010824
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
424 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AFTER A SOMEWHAT CHILLY START...AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUSH
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO AROUND 70 DEGREES...THOUGH ONLY INTO
THE 60S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WRN CWA WHERE EARLY AM DECOUPLING IN SIG WEAKER GRADIENT FLOW HAS
ALLOWED 2M TEMPS TO RADIATE OUT INTO LWR/MID 30S IN SPOTS WITH
PTCHY FROST MENTION EXPANSION FOR NEXT FEW HRS. GOOD DIURNAL PLUS
RISES LATER TODAY WITH STRONG INSOLATION ASSURED AS SIGNIFICANT
UPSTREAM RIDGING SFC/ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE WRN GRTLKS LATER
TODAY. 5H HEIGHT RISES ACRS SWRN GRTLKS ON ORDER OF ORDER OF
100-150M/12 HRS ERLY THIS AM. TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR
NORMAL AS SWD DISPLACED LLVL COLD POOL MIXES OUT WELL. SAVE FOR
PROMINENT INLAND INTRUSION OF LAKE SHADOW AMID WEAK NW-N
BACKGROUND FLOW. MAX TEMPS RAISED SLIGHTLY OVER PRIOR IN NEAR
FULL SUN. WRN GRTLKS SFC RIDGE SHUNTED SWD OVERNIGHT TO MID MS
VLY/MOUTH OF OHIO RIVER IN DEFERENCE TO STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACRS ERN DAKOTAS MOVG EWD THEN BULK OF ENERGY DEFLECTS NWD INTO
ONT. AGAIN SLIGHT WARMER NUDGE TO MIN TEMPS IN ABSENCE OF THIS AM
925MB THERMAL TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

DRY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
SLOWER WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT IN ADVANCE OF NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN FAR NW AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY LATE...FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS FRONT DRAWS CLOSE TO LK MICHIGAN. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL WITH CU RULE SUGGEST AT MOST SOME FAIR
WEATHER CU AND HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S.

CHANCES STILL LOOKING PROMISING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPES OUT OVER THE REGION. BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP APPEAR
TO BE ACROSS MAINLY NW THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WITH MSTR
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY WHERE FRONT
WILL LAY OUT...EFFECTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES...AND CONVECTIVE NATURE ITSELF WARRANTS HOLDING WITH
LIKELY POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH LOCATIONS
SEEING ANY SUNSHINE LIKELY TO WARM NICELY INTO THE 70S...VS
CLOUDS AND RAIN HOLDING TEMPS IN THE 60S.

MODELS APPEAR TO PUSH THE FRONT NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
STARTING WEDS INTO THURSDAY. COLD GREAT LAKES MAY HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE FRONT MAKES IT WITH BEST PRECIP
CHANCES RESIDING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FEATURE. IN THE WARM
SECTOR...CONVECTIVE CHANCES MORE CONDITIONAL ON TIMING OF ANY
SUBTLE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW AND EXACT MSTR CONTENT OVER THE AREA.
SUPERBLEND OF DATA SEEMS TO GET A BIT CARRIED AWAY WITH POPS BUT
WITH ONLY BEING SLGT CHC TO CHC CANT JUSTIFY PULLING
COMPLETELY...ESPECIALLY WITH LOCATION OF FRONT BY THIS POINT
UNCLEAR GIVEN ABOVE CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE PD AND LIKELY FOR ENTIRE WEEKEND ACRS
NRN IN. DRY/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH
DETAIL PROVIDED ONLY FOR DIURNAL NW-N SFC FLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY


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