Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 151904
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
304 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
RETURN OF SOME MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

INTIAL SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS FIRE WEATHER DANGER INTO EARLY
EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE HOVERING IN UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
COUPLED WITH EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...FELT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING
ALONG WITH KLOT. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z WHEN WINDS WILL
AT LEAST SLOWLY DIMINISH AND LOSE GUSTS.

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION. DTX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.16 INCHES WHILE KILX WAS AROUND 0.28 INCHES.
STARK CONTRAST FURTHER SOUTH WITH KSGF AND KOHX BOTH OVER AN INCH.
THIS SOUTHERN MOISTURE SHOULD WORK NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH THETA
E MOISTURE SURGE. WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE LOWER LEVELS AND
EXPECT MODEL QPF IS WELL OVERDONE WITH HINTS OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
WITHIN MASS FIELDS. PER MOST HIRES GUIDANCE EXPECT LIGHTER SHOWERS
TO REALLY GET GOING NEAR OR AFTER 06Z AND SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. GENERAL TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED.

ONCE THIS MOISTURE SURGE AND TROUGH PASS THURSDAY MORNING...CHANCES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS A SECONDARY
WEAK TROUGH WHICH PASSES IN AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS OR EVEN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT WITH LOW DEW POINTS INITIALLY AND
EVAP COOLING FROM ANY VIRGA LATE EVENING. SIDED TOWARD A BLEND BUT
ON COOLER SIDE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL BE LATER TO
ARRIVE. CLOUD COVER AND PCPN TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR 60 IN THE EAST
THURSDAY BUT SOUTHWEST COULD WARM TO UPPER 60S WITH LACK OF
AFTERNOON PCPN AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AND END THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN A NICE START TO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MID RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF THE CUT OFF LOW FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE A FEW
WAVES THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE FOLLOWING ~36 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR BEFORE GETTING A BETTER IDEA OF AMOUNTS. IF THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z GFS VERIFY SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS
OF AN INCH FROM THIS EVENT...BUT IF THE FINAL SOLUTION IS
WEAKER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY DO LITTLE TO MITIGATE CURRENT DRY
CONDITIONS.

COOL PATTERN WILL SET IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND LINGER FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK AS THE PHASING SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY CUTS OFF NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND KEEPS OUR AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

VFR EXPECTED REST OF TODAY INTO MUCH OF THIS EVENING WITH DRY
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE SURGE AND WEAK MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TONIGHT WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY ATMOSPHERE
INTIALLY A CONCERN PER 12Z SOUNDINGS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. MOISTURE SURGE SHOULD HELP
MOISTEN DEEPER LAYERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW CIGS
TO DROP TO MVFR RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...BENTLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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