Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 300001
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
801 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 518 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WILL BRING A
SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 40S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW
BRINGING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

MSTR STARVED UPR LOW OVR LK SP THIS AFTN WILL DROP NEARLY DUE SWD
INTO THE NRN CWA BY DAYBREAK THU. DISTINCT LACK OF MSTR RTN AHD OF
THIS SYS AND EWD DISPLACEMENT OF UPR JET SPRT JUSTIFIES NOTHING MORE
THAN A SLIGHT CHC POP MENTION MAINLY EAST THU AFTN. OTRWS W/COLD
POCKET ALOFT XPC VIGOROUS SC/CU DVLPMNT FM LT MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTN. HWVR W/TDS IN THE MID 30S EVEN SPRINKLES LOOK DOUBTFUL.

UNCERTAIN CLD EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT AND MIXED GUIDANCE TEMPS PRECLUDES
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY NW LIKE LAST NIGHT. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY
THERE AGAIN AND WORDED LT NIGHT WX GRIDS NW W/A PATCHY MENTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH DEPARTING UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA
SHEARING OUT AND SLIDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 120M HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING QUICKLY FILLS
IN BEHIND AND SETS THE STAGE FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY
WILL HAVE STRENGTHENING THERMAL RIDGE AND RETURN FLOW UP THROUGH THE
PLAINS STATES SATURDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR NOCTURNAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NITE. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST ANY DECAYING MCS REMNANTS WILL STAY WEST/SOUTH OF OUR
AREA SO WILL KEEP SATURDAY NITE DRY ATTM. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY IN PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO MONDAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW LEVEL
THERMAL AND THETAE RIDGING WHICH WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES TO
BEGIN NEXT WEEK. PARENT SURFACE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED JUST
EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES ON MORE
OF AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION AND STALLS OUT OVER THE
MIDWEST...EXTENDING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH DAY 7. AM DUBIOUS OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVOID OF GOOD
MODEL SIGNAL THAT WOULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL YIELD TO SUPERBLEND AND KEEP LOW CHANCES POPS
GOING. PLEASANT SEASONABLE TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S
FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 752 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN VFR CIGS WHICH SHOULD MOVE
TO THE SE OF TERMINALS THIS EVE. UPR LEVEL LOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
EXPECTED TO DROP SSE TO SW OH BY THU EVE. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CU/STRATO
CU THU. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW VFR RANGE... THOUGH FLOW
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER CIGS IN THE
HIGH MVFR RANGE AT SBN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH... BUT ATTM CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...JT


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