Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KIWX 260820
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
420 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS WEEK...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER EAST AREA. HIGH TODAY WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. LOWS THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 30S WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO
ALLOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
MIXING... ESPECIALLY OVER EAST AREAS. OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
REACHING UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME
LIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FROST OVER WEST AREAS WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO WITHIN 1 TO 2
DEGREES OF FREEZING OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INT NORTHWEST
INDIANA. OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A FROST ADVISORY FOR
NOW GIVEN MORE MARGINAL CONDITIONS AND GIVEN TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN
INTO THE 20S ON 2 OF THE PAST 3 NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

TROF ROTATING AROUND DEEP LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES... ESPECIALLY ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA... BUT MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE LACKING FOR ANY SHOWERS. TEMPS
SHOULD MIX OUT INTO THE M50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE M-U40S NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SOME STRATO CU MAY PERSIST MONDAY
NIGHT... ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE MORE CYCLONIC. WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NW AND A COOL START TO THE NIGHT... EXPECT PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT NW
WITH MINS IN THE L30S... RANGING TO AROUND 40 SE. WK UPR RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUE PROVIDING CONTD FAIR WX WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONT TO SUGGEST UPR LOW OVER SWRN CONUS TODAY
WILL MOVE EAST TO KY/TN BY WED AND MERGE WITH SECOND SYSTEM DROPPING
S-SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA FORMING A FAIRLY DEEP TROF OVER THE ERN
CONUS THU. STILL SGFNT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THIS TROF
BUT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT BEST MOISTURE/FORCING WILL BE E-SE OF OUR
CWA SO MAINTAINED JUST SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS IN THIS TIMEFRAME. CAA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DROPPING S-SE FROM CANADA SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPS REMAINING A BIT BLO NORMAL WED-THU.

UPR RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE GRTLKS FRIDAY AS ERN CONUS TROF
MOVES TO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FAIR WX WITH HIGHS A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL IN THE U60S. WARMUP SHOULD CONT SATURDAY AS A
SHRTWV MOVES EAST FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPR MIDWEST/GRTLKS.
SOME TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WRT THIS SYSTEM...
BUT APPEARS WORTHY OF LEAVING LOW SUPERBLEND POPS AND ADDING SLIGHT
CHC OF -RW TO FCST FOR FRI NGT-SAT TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS PERIOD...WITH COOL AND DRY AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE BASE OF A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO ALLOW VFR CU TO BECOME A
CEILING LATER TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER
EAST AREAS SO HAVE INCLUDED FT WAYNE WITH A VFR BROKEN CEILING.
OTHERWISE...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING...WINDS WILL PICK UP
SOME THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING 17 TO 20 KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.