Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 160508
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
108 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING GENERATING OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. A FEW ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY RANGE
BETWEEN THE UPPER 50S AND MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER...WITH RENEWED
CHANCES FOR RAIN BY SUNDAY. HIGHS ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

INITIAL SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS FIRE WEATHER DANGER INTO EARLY
EVENING. DEW POINTS WERE HOVERING IN UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
COUPLED WITH EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND 10 HOUR FUEL MOISTURE
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...FELT IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE RED FLAG WARNING
ALONG WITH KLOT. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z WHEN WINDS WILL
AT LEAST SLOWLY DIMINISH AND LOSE GUSTS.

VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER GREAT LAKES REGION. DTX 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 0.16 INCHES WHILE KILX WAS AROUND 0.28 INCHES.
STARK CONTRAST FURTHER SOUTH WITH KSGF AND KOHX BOTH OVER AN INCH.
THIS SOUTHERN MOISTURE SHOULD WORK NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH THETA
E MOISTURE SURGE. WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE LOWER LEVELS AND
EXPECT MODEL QPF IS WELL OVERDONE WITH HINTS OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
WITHIN MASS FIELDS. PER MOST HIRES GUIDANCE EXPECT LIGHTER SHOWERS
TO REALLY GET GOING NEAR OR AFTER 06Z AND SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA. GENERAL TENTH TO ONE QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED.

ONCE THIS MOISTURE SURGE AND TROUGH PASS THURSDAY MORNING...CHANCES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS A SECONDARY
WEAK TROUGH WHICH PASSES IN AFTERNOON AND THIS COULD SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS OR EVEN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT WITH LOW DEW POINTS INITIALLY AND
EVAP COOLING FROM ANY VIRGA LATE EVENING. SIDED TOWARD A BLEND BUT
ON COOLER SIDE NORTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS/MOISTURE WILL BE LATER TO
ARRIVE. CLOUD COVER AND PCPN TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR 60 IN THE EAST
THURSDAY BUT SOUTHWEST COULD WARM TO UPPER 60S WITH LACK OF
AFTERNOON PCPN AND THINNING CLOUD COVER.


&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT WED APR 15 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AND END THE RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN A NICE START TO THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MID RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EJECTION OF THE CUT OFF LOW FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE A FEW
WAVES THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE FOLLOWING ~36 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA...BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR BEFORE GETTING A BETTER IDEA OF AMOUNTS. IF THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 12Z GFS VERIFY SOME AREAS COULD SEE IN EXCESS
OF AN INCH FROM THIS EVENT...BUT IF THE FINAL SOLUTION IS
WEAKER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY DO LITTLE TO MITIGATE CURRENT DRY
CONDITIONS.

COOL PATTERN WILL SET IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND LINGER FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK AS THE PHASING SYSTEM FROM SUNDAY CUTS OFF NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND KEEPS OUR AREA IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS (GREATER COVERAGE/INTENSITY AT KSBN) ARE
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS A COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/CIRCULATION
AND ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND SURGE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE LIFTS THROUGH. DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FEED ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEPARTING RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR CEILINGS
EARLY THIS MORNING. TOP DOWN SATURATION PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY
YIELD MVFR CIGS BY LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF
IFR POSSIBLE AT KSBN NEAR INVERTED SFC TROUGH. THIS FEATURE DOES
GRADUALLY TRAIL EAST THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVE...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW ADDITONAL SHOWERS GIVEN
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST NEAR SFC LAYER.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...BENTLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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