Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 302330
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
730 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 627 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

UPPER LOW WILL BE PULLING AWAY TONIGHT TAKING THE SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN WITH IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REPLACE IT FOR FRIDAY. THEREFORE
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S IN NORTHWESTERN INDIANA TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO AROUND 70 FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

UPR LOW OVR WRN IN WILL CONT TO DIG S/SE OVERNIGHT AND
FRI...REACHING THE NC COAST THIS TIME TOMORROW. ERN LOBE OF MID LVL
MSTR PLUME TRYING TO ARC BACK WWD THIS AFTN BUT LOSING STEAM TO
ABUNDANT DRY AIR. SHLD EVENTUALLY SEE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHRA CLIP
ERN THIRD YET THIS EVENING AS MID LVL MSTR PLUME WRAPS FURTHER.

OTRWS SFC RIDGING TO BLD QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE WRN OH VALLEY
W/SUBSTANTIAL LL THERMAL MODERATION XPCD OUTSIDE LAKE SHADOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD IN WAKE OF TODAY`S UPPER LOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WEEKEND ALSO LOOKS DRY AS MODEST LOW-MID
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE WITHIN A DEVELOPING LLJ FOCUSES
WELL WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA. FOLD OVER OF THIS LOW LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE/DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
PERTURBED/ZONAL WESTERLIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN/THUNDER INTO
THE FORECAST BY MONDAY-TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
TIMING/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS MAKING FOR A LOWER
CONFIDENCE MIN/MAX FCST DURING THIS TIME. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE (ORIENTED MORE SE TO
NW OVER THE AREA) AND MAY LIFT BACK NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERSPREADS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM/WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION. THE RESULT WILL BE A TREND TOWARD WARMER
TEMPS AND LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AS WARM SECTOR BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

VFR FOR THE PERIOD. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE KFWA NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AS LAST WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND DEPARTING UPPER LOW. SATELLITE
SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH KSBN BKN-SCT
BUT MORE BKN-OVC AT KFWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE CLEARING.
NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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