Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 172025
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
425 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SKIES TONIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. FOG FROM
THIS MORNING HAS BURNED OFF AS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
MIXING. A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED INTO FAR NW CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO THIN BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY DERAIL MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST BUT
A FEW HOURS OF SCT OR BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WE ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST. ANOTHER MILD SPRING DAY IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS BACK INTO MID 70S AND WILL AGAIN SIDE
TOWARD HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS/BIAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MERGE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.50
INCHES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA. 0-3KM
HELICITY IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 1000 M2S2 WITH NEARLY 50 M/S SHEAR IN
THIS LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY CAPE.
BELIEVE THIS SITUATION STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. KEPT LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FROST
IS LIKELY ONE OR MORE NIGHTS. TEMPERED SUPERBLEND CHANCE POPS TO
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK BASED ON OFFICE VERIFICATION
SHOWING A PROFOUND WET BIAS AND GIVEN ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 420 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL KEEP DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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