Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 300608
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
208 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING
SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO. LOW
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 40S OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SHOWERS
LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND BRING
SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
SPRINKLES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA. HAVE
UPDATED TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN BAND OF
RAIN AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

MSTR STARVED UPR LOW OVR LK SP THIS AFTN WILL DROP NEARLY DUE SWD
INTO THE NRN CWA BY DAYBREAK THU. DISTINCT LACK OF MSTR RTN AHD OF
THIS SYS AND EWD DISPLACEMENT OF UPR JET SPRT JUSTIFIES NOTHING MORE
THAN A SLIGHT CHC POP MENTION MAINLY EAST THU AFTN. OTRWS W/COLD
POCKET ALOFT XPC VIGOROUS SC/CU DVLPMNT FM LT MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTN. HWVR W/TDS IN THE MID 30S EVEN SPRINKLES LOOK DOUBTFUL.

UNCERTAIN CLD EVOLUTION OVERNIGHT AND MIXED GUIDANCE TEMPS PRECLUDES
ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY NW LIKE LAST NIGHT. POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY
THERE AGAIN AND WORDED LT NIGHT WX GRIDS NW W/A PATCHY MENTION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

FORECAST PERIOD TO BEGIN WITH DEPARTING UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA
SHEARING OUT AND SLIDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 120M HEIGHT
RISES IN ITS WAKE THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGING QUICKLY FILLS
IN BEHIND AND SETS THE STAGE FOR A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY
WILL HAVE STRENGTHENING THERMAL RIDGE AND RETURN FLOW UP THROUGH THE
PLAINS STATES SATURDAY AND SET THE STAGE FOR NOCTURNAL MCS
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NITE. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS SUGGEST ANY DECAYING MCS REMNANTS WILL STAY WEST/SOUTH OF OUR
AREA SO WILL KEEP SATURDAY NITE DRY ATTM. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY IN PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
REMAINS ANCHORED JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO MONDAY AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL STRENGTHEN RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOW LEVEL
THERMAL AND THETAE RIDGING WHICH WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES TO
BEGIN NEXT WEEK. PARENT SURFACE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED JUST
EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY ON TUESDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TAKES ON MORE
OF AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION AND STALLS OUT OVER THE
MIDWEST...EXTENDING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH DAY 7. AM DUBIOUS OF
PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVOID OF GOOD
MODEL SIGNAL THAT WOULD SERVE AS FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WILL YIELD TO SUPERBLEND AND KEEP LOW CHANCES POPS
GOING. PLEASANT SEASONABLE TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S
FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. REMOVED THE MVFR CIGS GIVEN THE LATEST HI RES MODEL FCSTS
AND SFC OBS AND TRENDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING
INTO THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...HELPING TO BRING CLEARING SKIES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SKIPPER
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...JAL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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