Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281852
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
252 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST AGAIN ACROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

SFC RIDGE ACRS THE LAKES/WRN OH VALLEY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCOMING NRN
STREAM SW AMPLIFYING SWD OUT OF WRN ONTARIO THIS PD. ONE MORE COLD
NIGHT TO CONTEND W/TONIGHT ESP NW ZONES WHERE CLR SKIES HOLD
LONGEST.

WILL HOLD W/LOW CHC POP MENTION LT WED AFTN YET GENERALLY DISCOUNT
PCPN PRODUCING MODEL SOLUTIONS AS A WHOLE GIVEN DRYNESS NOTED
UPSTREAM IN 12Z RAOBS. HWVR POPS GRADIENT GENERALLY ALIGNED
W/SPRINKLE POTENTIAL FAR NE. OTRWS TEMPS TRICKY GIVEN INCREASING
CLDS XPCD TO DVLP AHD OF APCHG UPR WAVE. WEAK LL THERMAL RIDGING AHD
OF THIS FTR ALG W/AT LEAST PARTIAL MORNING INSOLATION AND SOMEWHAT
WARMER START FOR MOST AND SHLD YIELD TEMPS SIMILAR TO THIS AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

COOL AND BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
GIVEN PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. A MODEST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS. WE ARE INITIALLY IN THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THAT CHANGES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE JETS DIVES SOUTH. GIVEN THIS AND
WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF CVA BULLSEYE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF GENERALLY
LACKLUSTER MOISTURE...FEEL THAT CHANCE POPS ARE STILL MOST
APPROPRIATE. DO ANTICIPATE SOME SCT SHOWERS BUT COVERAGE AND QPF
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF CLIMO
WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 0C. SOME CONCERN FOR FROST THURSDAY
NIGHT AS CLOUDS SCATTER IN THE WAKE OF EXITING WAVE.
HOWEVER...APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH GRADIENT WIND WITH THERMAL PROFILES
JUST WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD THREAT.

HINTS OF A PATTERN CHANGE SHOWING UP FOR NEXT WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AND FOCUSED ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER. THIS ALLOWS
WARMER AND (RELATIVELY) MORE HUMID AIRMASS TO INFILTRATE OUR AREA.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW SHORTWAVES MAY RIPPLE THROUGH THE REGION
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES. STILL A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION SO
WILL JUST HOLD WITH MID RANGE CHANCE POPS FOR DAYS 6-7 UNTIL MODELS
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON EVOLVING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

SFC RIDGING WILL CONT TO RETREAT INADV OF SW TROUGH AMPLIFYING SWD
OUT OF WRN ONTARIO. CLR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
CIGS BY LT MORNING WED. WIND THROUGH THE PD XPCD TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TO 8 AM EDT /7 AM
     CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR INZ003>005-012-014.

MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T


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