Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KIWX 010039
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
839 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEATHER WILL BE QUIET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL RANGE FROM CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S. A WARM UP IS IN STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S...THEN
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FOR THURSDAY. RAIN IS
LIKELY THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD ADVECTION INDUCED STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT OUT OF
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. SHEARED UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DROPPING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY BRING SOME LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECTING BULK
OF THESE CLOUDS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY EVENING TEMP CURVE/CURRENT
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS...BUT NO CHANGE EXPECTED
TO PREVIOUS LOWER TO MID 30S LOWS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WX NIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS PLAINS UPPER RIDGE AXIS
TRANSLATES EAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL HEIGHT RISES/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE WILL ALLOW
SFC RIDGING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE LOCAL AREA DURING THIS
TIME. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHTER WINDS, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, AND
LARGER TEMP DIURNALS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SHRTWV APCHG THE PAC NW TODAY EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE UPR MIDWEST
THU. WHILE STILL APPEARS MAIN PRECIP EVENT FROM THIS SYSTEM IN OUR
AREA WILL BE THURSDAY AS SHRTWV/CDFNT MOVE INTO THE CWA... CONCERNED
A FEW FAST MOVG CELLS COULD DEVELOP LATE WED NGT AS LOW LEVEL
JET/THETA-E AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SPREADS INTO
WRN PORTION OF THE AREA. COUPLED UPR LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE UPR
GRTLKS AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PROVIDE STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS OUR AREA THU WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO PROVIDES
FORCING ALONG CDFNT MOVG INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTN. THESE FORCING
MECHANISMS COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OVERSPREADING THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV/FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. BUMPED POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL OVER ALL BUT SE
PORTION WHERE FROPA EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TIL EVE. CDFNT EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN THU NGT AS SHRTWV SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE UPR GRTLKS AND
SECONDARY SHRTWV DROPS SE ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INDUCING A
SFC WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE SRN PLAINS. GIVEN EXPECTED SLOWER
FROPA... BUMPED UP POPS THU NGT... ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTION OF
CWA. LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING TEMPS WED NIGHT-THU WITH GRADIENT WINDS
AND WAA HOLDING LOWS TO ONLY THE M40S EAST TO L50S WEST WED NIGHT...
SUFFICIENT MIXING AND DRY PERIODS EXPECTED THU FOR HIGHS IN THE U60S
NW TO L70S SE. WITH SLOWER FROPA BUMPED TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE U30S NW TO THE U40S SE.

SECONDARY SHRTWV AND SFC LOW MOVG ENE ALONG STALLED CDFNT OVER THE
OH VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE PRECIP TO CONT ACROSS AT LEAST SE PORTION OF
THE CWA FRIDAY. AS LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT... CAA
COULD LEAD TO RAIN BRIEFLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN DEFORMATION ZONE
BEFORE ENDING. SFC RIDGE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
PROVIDING FAIR WX WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF CONTG BLO
NORMAL TEMPS. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT SUNDAY. LITTLE MOISTURE INITIALLY ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS
ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES... GRDLY INCREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPR
TROF MOVES SLOWLY INTO WRN U.S. CAUSING SFC LOW TO DVLP OVER THE
PLAINS AND EJECT EASTWARD. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLO NORMAL OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF STALLED
STRENGTHENING SFC BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 832 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

COLD ADVECTION INDUCED STRATOCU SHOULD BE DEPARTING FAR NORTHEAST
INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP AS THIS HIGH BEGINS TO DEPART OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. STRONGER LOWER LOW
LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
EXPECTED...AND ONLY SOME LOW COVERAGE HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.