Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 021704
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
104 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK ONLY TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

CENTROID OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE INTO NERN IL WITH ONLY MODEST
MID/UPR LVL MSTR TO PROVIDE SOME ERLY AM CLOUD COVER. WITH
PASSAGE SIG DRIER AIRMASS FOR AMPLE INSOLATION AGAIN TODAY. THIS
ALONG WITH MID TROP SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE TO ALLOW CONTD THERMAL PROFILE MODERATION. STRONG DIURNAL
PLUS RISES ANTICIPATED WITH 24 HR TEMP CHNG PRESENTLY PLUS 5-10F
IN WRN CWA ATTM AND ONLY LESSER INLAND PENETRATION OF LAKE
INFLUENCE AS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS AS SFC RIDGE CONTS EWD SLIDE
INTO ERN KY/GREAT SMOKY REGION LATER TODAY. SIMILARLY A SLIGHT
RAISE TO TONIGHTS MIN TEMPS AS GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN DEGREE OF
MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT/SRLY 5-10KTS SFC WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ONE MORE NICE DAY IN STORE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION AND ALLOWS A SLOW RETURN IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL GIVE THE FRONT A FINAL NUDGE AND FORCE IT
TO LAY OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE LEANED
AGAIN ANY PRECIP MAKING IT IN PRIOR TO 12Z MONDAY...BUT CAN`T
FULLY RULE OUT SO WILL KEEP WITH TREND OF CHC POPS IN FAR NW
AREAS. ONE OR MORE WAVES OF CONVECTION MAY RIDE ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT EXACT PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH WILL BE DICTATED BY HOW
MUCH HEATING OCCURS AND LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST
CHANCES STILL ON TRACK MON-TUES WITH HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS KEPT
IN PLACE. SWODY3 HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM GIVEN
MODELS INDICATE SFC BASED LI`S BELOW ZERO AND GENERALLY 500 J/KG
OR LESS OR SBCAPE AND WET BULB ZERO LEVELS IN THE 9K TO 10K RANGE.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SW US AND ALLOW FOR
INCREASED RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT SUPERBLEND WAS OVERDOING POPS WEDS
INTO THURS...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARRIVE BACK BY THURS NGT/FRI. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

1022 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE TERMINALS WITH QUIET/DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE. ONLY REASON FOR FM GROUPS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
DIURNAL WIND SPEED CYCLE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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