Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 030605
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION...ALLOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
WILL DRAG A COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO NEAR 80.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. NEXT UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE ACROSS IOWA DOES STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT...BUT PERSISTENCE OF OHIO VALLEY RIDGING WILL
KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ANCHORED WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED WHICH IS ALREADY
CAPTURED IN PREVIOUS GRIDS. UPDATED FORECAST TO BE SENT SHORTLY TO
REFRESH WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT-SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EDGING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST US. ANOTHER
WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO IOWA WILL PROPAGATE
THROUGH LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY AM IN WEAK ZONAL FLOW. NO PCPN
EXPECTED GIVEN WEAK FORCING/DRY SUB-800 MB LAYER WITH MOISTURE
CHANNEL FOCUSED WELL WNW WITHIN LOW LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH SHOULD
SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY NW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

IMPRESSIVE SW TROUGH ROLLING THROUGH THE NEPAC THIS AFTN WILL
REACH THE BC COAST EARLY TUE AND THEN CUTOFF ACRS THE WRN US.
LEAD SW CURRENTLY ACRS ALBERTA WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EWD ACRS SRN
CANADA AND EWD PROPEL A FNTL BNDRY INTO THE LAKES/OH VALLEY ON
MON W/SRN PORTION OF THE BNDRY STALLING OUT.

SUBSTANTIVE TRENDS SEEN IN GUIDANCE ESP W/FASTER/DAMPENED EWD
PROGRESSION OF LEAD NRN STREAM WAVE TRAVERSING SRN CANADA EARLY
IN THE PD AND FARTHER NWD PLACEMENT OF STALLING SFC BNDRY MON
INTO TUE. HWVR BEYOND THAT SIG CONSENSUS SOLUTION EXISTS
W/EVOLUTION OF ROCKIES CUTOFF AND DOWNSTREAM SIG MID LVL RIDGING.
AS SUCH AND IN LIGHT OF PROBABLE SUBTROPICAL HYBRID LOW DVLPMNT
ALG THE SE US COAST...FVR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WRT MID
LVL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION. THUS THE ADMITTEDLY MORE REALISTIC
SOLUTION SCOPE SUGGESTS LTL IF ANY POPS ARE NEEDED BEYOND TUE AS
LEAD FNTL BNDRY WASHES OUT AND MID LVL RIDGE BLDS SUFFICIENTLY TO
CAP OFF THE LOCAL AREA.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PD WELL ABV NORMAL OUTSIDE TUE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE PD. UPSTREAM DECAY OF CONVECTION ACRS
MN/IA/NE TO PROVIDE SOME DEBRIS ALTOCU/CI CLOUDS...THOUGH OF
LITTLE CONSEQUENCE. CHANGE GROUPS PRIMARY FUNCTION TO DELINEATE
DIURNAL INCREASE OF S-SWRLY SFC FLOW...WITH AN INCRSD/MIXED
GRADIENT FLOW MAINTAINING IN LATTER TIMEFRAME OF FCST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


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