Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 020033
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
833 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A WEAK UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN
IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MAIN RESULT FOR THE LOCAL
AREA WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. JUST A MINOR TWEAK
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THIS HIGH CLOUD MAY
BE NEEDED...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED
TO TONIGHTS FORECAST. UPDATED FORECAST WILL BE SENT SHORTLY TO
REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

GLORIOUS EARLY MAY WX WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
LOCAL AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE
SETTLING INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK/ELONGATED
MID LEVEL TROUGH IN FLATTENED FLOW...AND ASSOCIATED FOLD OVER OF
LEADING/ELEVATED THETA-E RIDGE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WILL LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THIS TIME. CLEAR OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF SOME DIURNAL CU WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND DEEPER MIXING ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL RIDGE AFFORDING LOW-MID 70S HIGHS
TOMORROW AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL START.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

POTENT SW ROLLING EWD SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THIS AFTN WILL REACH
THE PACNW BY TUE AM AND THEN CARVE A PATH SEWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AND CUTOFF BY LT NXT WEEK. LEAD SRN STREAM IMPULSE OFF THE SRN CA
COAST WILL LIFT OUT AHD OF THIS SYS THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS LT PD
WHILE LEAD NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE OVR WRN BC EJECTS EWD THROUGH SRN
CANADA EARLY IN THE PD.

FNTL BNDRY ASSOCD/W LEAD NRN STREAM SYS WILL PUSH E/S THROUGH MONDAY
BFR STALLING OUT ACRS DOWNSTATE IN/IL AND SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS
FOR PCPN DVLPMNT DYS 3-4. HWVR EWD FOLD OVER OF LL THETA-E RIDGE AND
LL MSTR PLUME RATHER BENIGN LOOKING W/MUCH BTR OVERLAP OCCURRING
WELL WWD FM W TX NWD INTO KS IN PROXIMITY TO LEE SIDE TROUGH. IN
FACT GENERAL FRONTOLYTIC WKNG OF FNTL BNDRY W/EWD EXTENT ALG
W/DECAYING LL MASS FLUX WITHIN VEERED WRLY LL FLW SUGGESTS MINIMAL
POPS NEEDED BEYOND MON NIGHT-TUE PD. THUS BROKE AWAY FM UNREALISTIC
ALLBLEND GUIDANCE IN FVR OF MORE SQUARELY ALIGNED GFS/EC/GEM BLEND
WHICH ARE DRY UNDERNEATH BLDG MID LVL RIDGE UNTIL FRI AT THE
EARLIEST.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PD WELL ABV NORMAL OUTSIDE TUE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 818 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NORTHWEST AND NORTH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND THEN SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS SATURDAY
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SAGS SOUTHWARD. SCT VFR CU AWAY FROM
MARINE SHADOW WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDINESS TONIGHT. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THROUGH
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON CU COVERAGE MAY BE A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ON
SATURDAY GIVEN THIS WEAK FORCING...BUT BASES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE VFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


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