Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 270610
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
210 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER AND FAIR SKIES. EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

QUIET WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH MAIN
ITEMS OF INTEREST CENTERED ON TEMP/SKY COVER TRENDS TONIGHT/MONDAY.

UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE THROUGH PARENT UPPER CIRCULATION THIS EVENING. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AND ONLY JUST AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CU HAS BEEN NOTED
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. WHILE
COVERAGE OF THIS CU FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT WITH SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING...FORCING WITH APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST/EAST SECTIONS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TO MODERATE GRADIENT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AND THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON FROST
FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN MINS FROM MID 30S WEST TO MID TO
UPPER 30S EAST...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST.

LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPPER WAVE IS
TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC AND SHOULD DROP INTO
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHERN OHIO MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY BETTER
MOISTURE PROFILES WRAPPING AROUND UPPER LOW SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
SECOND WAVE...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE SOLID LOW CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE EAST/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY MORE LIMITED
MIXING. THUS...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHS TOMORROW FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
THAT ARE IN THE BALLPARK TO THAT OBSERVED TODAY. COOLER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN ONCE AGAIN AS ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR MONDAY EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN WESTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKY COVER
WILL DISSIPATE QUICKER. HAVE LOWERED LOWS A TOUCH AND EXPANDED
MENTION OF PATCHY FROST. FROST HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED WITH EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FROST POSSIBLE. LIMITED RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY WEDS NGT. PHASING OF SYSTEMS STILL EXPECTED BUT MAY END UP
MORE SOUTH OF THE REGION VS SE AS LARGER UPPER LOW SLOWER TO DEPART.
WITH THE AREA STILL GROSSLY LACKING MOISTURE...NOT LOOKING PROMISING
FOR SHOWERS WITH MODELS NOW BACKING OFF WEDS AND SHIFTING SOMEWHAT
TO WEDS NGT. HAVE KEPT WITH SLGT CHC POPS BUT SUSPECT LATER
FORECASTS WILL END UP REMOVING AS WELL.

TROUGHY PATTERN WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES AND THE AREA FINALLY SEES A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH SOME HINTS OF A MARGINAL SHOWER CHANCE. HAVE TONED DOWN
SUPERBLEND AND WENT WITH GENERAL SLGT CHC FOR AS MSTR WILL RETURN
BUT NOT BE OVERLY DEEP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF VFR CIGS EXTENDING FROM EAST INDIANA
INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE LARGER SCALE UPPER LOW AND SHOULD REACH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. KEPT THE MENTION OF VFR CIGS AT FT WAYNE STARTING AT
15Z. SOME CONCERN FOR MVFR CIGS AT FWA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN AS MVFR CIGS AND RAIN WAS NEARING FLINT MICH AT 06Z.
KEPT THE TAFS OPTIMISTIC FOR NOW AND WILL AWAIT LATER GUIDANCE AND
MONITOR RADAR OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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