Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 300957
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
557 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY AND BRING THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS LATER TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THERE IS A CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA TOWARD DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS DROPPING
STRAIGHT SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES
THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THIS MORNING TO SOUTHWEST AREAS INCLUDING
WHITE COUNTY AND THE MONTICELLO/LOGANSPORT AREA. THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A 110 KT UPPER LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA. NAM
12 CROSS SECTION WAS INDICATING A DEEP INTRUSION OF STRATOSPHERIC
AIR WITH POTENTIAL VORTICITY UNITS OF NEAR 7 PVU DOWN TO NEARLY
500 MB OVER THIS AREA. ANY RAIN OVER THIS AREA WILL END QUICKLY AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL INDIANA BY MIDDAY. ALSO...HAVE
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE EAST WITH A SHORT WAVE TROF
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. FOR THIS
PACKAGE...FAVORED MAINLY THE WPC HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. HAVE
INCLUDED A SMALL AREA OF PATCHY FROST AGAIN TONIGHT OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MIDDLE RANGE THIS FCST CYCLE AND FINALLY
SQUELCHING SENSIBLE POP/WX MENTION DURING SUNDAY. MUTLI MODEL
CONSENSUS CONTS TO EVOLVE WITH RESPECT TO GREATER LONGEVITY IN
RELATION TO LEAD RIDGING EXTRUDED NEWD FM MEXICO/WRN TX/NM INTO
GRTLKS IN ADVANCE OF ZONAL WAVE TRAINS EWD PROGRESS. FIRST STRONG
SHORTWAVE/PVU ANAMOLY ACRS WRN MT/ID TO BE SHUNTED WELL NORTH OF
CWA TOWARD HUDSON BAY FRI NIGHT/SAT. 20-40M/12 HR RISES ACRS WRN
GRTLKS INTO SUN AND WELL UPSTREAM/MORE FOCUSED SFC FNTL WAVE
ASSOCD WITH NEXT DISTINCT SHORTWAVE/ASSOCD RAPID WRLY MID TROP
FLOW...RELEGATED ACRS NRN PLAINS SUN AM SHIFTING INTO NRN MS VLY
BY SUN EVE. PERHAPS MCS DEGENERATIVE MCS INTO NWRN CWA SUN
NIGHT...THOUGH LIKELY LYTIC SCENARIO AS CONVECTION MOVES OFF
UPSTREAM LLJ FOCUS. HIEST CHCS DY5/6 /ESPCLY NRN TIER ZONES/ AS
SFC FNTL BNDRY LIES OUT E/W SRN GRTLKS WITH MORE DEFINITIVE N/S
POP GRADIENT...IN LINE WITH BEST COLLOCATED CORE OF HIR THETA-E
RIBBON ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF MID TROP JETLET/HEIGHT FALL
CENTROID AND ULVL 100-120 KT JET ENTRANCE REGION. FNTL BNDRY
SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH CWA AS SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ROTATES NWD
THROUGH PLAINS AHEAD OF MORE ROBUST/DIGGING NRN STREAM SYSTEM
THAT MOVES ASHORE IN PAC NW MIDDAY TUE. THEREAFTER A MORE
DEFINITE END FOR SENSIBLE POP/WX MENTION INTO LATTER PART OF WEEK
AS DEEP WARM SECTOR APPEARS TO ESTABLISH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 554 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015

A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES SOUTH. HAVE A TEMPO MVFR CIG AT SOUTH BEND FOR EXPECTED
CLOUDS BEHIND THIS FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING
INTO THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT...HELPING TO BRING CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


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