Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 140928
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
528 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE THE
REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REACH THE 60S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT
DROPPING TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
RETURN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES IN
RESPONSE TO SHARP UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US WILL HELP
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. FAIR WX AND SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL RESULT GIVEN DEARTH OF
LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE. HIGH
CIRRUS CANOPY ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF WEAK SRN STREAM WAVE SHEARING
ENE THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS TODAY AND LEFTOVER SRN PLAINS UPPER
LOW DRIFTING TOWARD THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT MAY LIMIT THE
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE BY A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE QUIET WEATHER AS EASTERLY FLOW MAINTAINS ITS
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. POCKET OF STRONGER MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
AFFECTING SOUTHERN/EASTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE PRECEDING 24 HOURS
WILL KEEP A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS ANCHORED ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA VIA THIS EASTERLY FLOW. ONLY SOME CONTINUED HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY THAT WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY.  BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
ALLOW WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD
ADVECTED PV ANOMALY TO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT
COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER FORCING FROM DAMPENING PV ANOMALY STILL
ARGUES FOR A CHANCE RAIN SHOWER MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GIVEN VERY DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR MASS INITIALLY IN PLACE
WEDNESDAY....DID ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL FOCUSING HIGHER CHANCE
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED ISOLD THUNDER
MENTION THURSDAY GIVEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS PARKED ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW GIVEN MEAGER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DAMPENING NATURE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING. DESPITE
WARMER LOW LEVEL PROFILES ON THURSDAY...WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY MAX TEMPS
MAY BE COMPARABLE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DUE TO MORE LIMITED MIXED
LAYER DEPTHS ON THURSDAY AND INFLUENCE OF SHOWERS AND MORE
SUBSTANTIAL/THICKER CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP AS QUIET WITH UPPER RIDGING
SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF CUTTING-OFF UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LAST SEVERAL CYCLES OF GFS REMAIN
FAIRLY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN IN REGARDS TO HOW THIS CUT-OFF
UPPER TROUGH EVENTUALLY GETS INGESTED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM.
00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS SEEMS TO HAVE REVERTED BACK TO EARLIER
SOLUTIONS IN LESS PROGRESSION...MORE INLINE WITH EC/GEM. THIS IDEA
IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN 00Z GEFS 500 HPA MEANS. THIS OVERALL CLUSTER
SEEMS TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE
MUCH AT THIS TIME. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A DIFFICULT
TIME RESOLVING SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
WAVES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...THAT COULD INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AT TIMES. CONSENSUS IDEA STILL FAVORS BETTER PHASING OF
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM BY LATE WEEKEND...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FOCUS POPS FOR LATER SUNDAY-MONDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPS TO CONTINUE
THIS PERIOD...WITH INDICATIONS OF SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS JUST
BEYOND THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD IN HEDGING TOWARD PASSAGE OF A
BETTER PHASED SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND PROVIDE THE
TERMINALS WITH DRY/FAIR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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