Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 010548
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
148 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND ACROSS
THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S IN NORTHWEST INDIANA TO THE LOWER 40S IN NORTHWEST
OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE AROUND 70
DEGREES...THOUGH ONLY INTO THE 60S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

UPR LOW OVR WRN IN WILL CONT TO DIG S/SE OVERNIGHT AND
FRI...REACHING THE NC COAST THIS TIME TOMORROW. ERN LOBE OF MID
LVL MSTR PLUME TRYING TO ARC BACK WWD THIS AFTN BUT LOSING STEAM
TO ABUNDANT DRY AIR. SHLD EVENTUALLY SEE SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHRA CLIP ERN THIRD YET THIS EVENING AS MID LVL MSTR PLUME WRAPS
FURTHER.

OTRWS SFC RIDGING TO BLD QUICKLY SWD THROUGH THE WRN OH VALLEY
W/SUBSTANTIAL LL THERMAL MODERATION XPCD OUTSIDE LAKE SHADOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT THU APR 30 2015

MODERATING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER HEIGHTS
BUILD IN WAKE OF TODAY`S UPPER LOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY OPEN INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WEEKEND ALSO LOOKS DRY AS MODEST LOW-
MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE WITHIN A DEVELOPING LLJ
FOCUSES WELL WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA. FOLD OVER OF THIS LOW LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE/DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF PERTURBED/ZONAL WESTERLIES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST BY MONDAY-TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TIMING/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE MIN/MAX FCST DURING THIS TIME. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
DIFFUSE (ORIENTED MORE SE TO NW OVER THE AREA) AND MAY LIFT BACK
NORTH LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM/WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
AMPLIFICATION. THE RESULT WILL BE A TREND TOWARD WARMER TEMPS AND
LOWER CHANCES FOR PCPN AS WARM SECTOR BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE PD AND LIKELY FOR ENTIRE WEEKEND ACRS
NRN IN. DRY/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH
DETAIL PROVIDED ONLY FOR DIURNAL NW-N SFC FLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


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