Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 021900
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
300 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK ONLY TO AROUND 50
DEGREES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REACH IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT-SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES ON THE BACKSIDE OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE EDGING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST US. ANOTHER WEAK/LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TRACKING INTO IOWA WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH LATER
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AM IN WEAK ZONAL FLOW. NO PCPN EXPECTED GIVEN WEAK
FORCING/DRY SUB-800 MB LAYER WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL FOCUSED WELL WNW
WITHIN LOW LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY NW).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

IMPRESSIVE SW TROUGH ROLLING THROUGH THE NEPAC THIS AFTN WILL REACH
THE BC COAST EARLY TUE AND THEN CUTOFF ACRS THE WRN US. LEAD SW
CURRENTLY ACRS ALBERTA WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EWD ACRS SRN CANADA AND
EWD PROPEL A FNTL BNDRY INTO THE LAKES/OH VALLEY ON MON W/SRN
PORTION OF THE BNDRY STALLING OUT.

SUBSTANTIVE TRENDS SEEN IN GUIDANCE ESP W/FASTER/DAMPENED EWD
PROGRESSION OF LEAD NRN STREAM WAVE TRAVERSING SRN CANADA EARLY IN
THE PD AND FARTHER NWD PLACEMENT OF STALLING SFC BNDRY MON INTO TUE.
HWVR BEYOND THAT SIG CONSENSUS SOLUTION EXISTS W/EVOLUTION OF
ROCKIES CUTOFF AND DOWNSTREAM SIG MID LVL RIDGING. AS SUCH AND IN
LIGHT OF PROBABLE SUBTROPICAL HYBRID LOW DVLPMNT ALG THE SE US
COAST...FVR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WRT MID LVL RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION. THUS THE ADMITTEDLY MORE REALISTIC SOLUTION SCOPE
SUGGESTS LTL IF ANY POPS ARE NEEDED BEYOND TUE AS LEAD FNTL BNDRY
WASHES OUT AND MID LVL RIDGE BLDS SUFFICIENTLY TO CAP OFF THE LOCAL
AREA.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PD WELL ABV NORMAL OUTSIDE TUE PD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

1022 MB SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE TERMINALS WITH QUIET/DRY WX AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF CYCLE. ONLY REASON FOR FM GROUPS WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
DIURNAL WIND SPEED CYCLE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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