Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 061430
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1030 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR
SUNSHINE WITH ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH WARM TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1030 AM EST...MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY, POPS AND WX WITH THIS
UPDATE LARGELY TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS BOUNDARY, MORNING VISIBLE DEPICTS A
PRETTY WELL- DEFINED GRADIENT IN DIABATIC HEATING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL
DISTRICT REGIONS NORTHWARD, WITH OVERCAST SKIES FROM GREENE AND
COLUMBIA COUNTIES IN NY AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN MA
SOUTHWARD. OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT SHOWERS PER RADAR RETURNS. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST THINKING REGARDING THESE
SHOWERS, AS LATEST 3-KM HRRR AND LOCAL WRF OUTPUT SHOWS THESE
SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SKY COVER DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, I
OPTED TO LOWER HIGHS IN THE SCHOHARIE AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEYS
INTO THE LITCHFIELD HILLS OF CT, BLENDING IN SOME OF THE COOLER
SREF MEAN AND MOS GUIDANCE VALUES. WITH THESE CHANGES, HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE LOW-MID 70S FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY AREA INTO SOUTHERN VT,
TO THE MID- UPPER 70S FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD AND MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTHWARD

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY DRY AND WARM
WEATHER...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE...AS RIDGING
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL OFF FOR
TONIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S IN VALLEY AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH
LOTS OF SUN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL QUICKLY WARM THROUGH
THE MORNING...AND LOOK TO REACH AROUND 80 FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON /SOME UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS/.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS CONTINUING AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
OCCURRING...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN.

850 HPA TEMPS WILL RISE TO 12-14 DEGREES C FOR FRIDAY. WITH LOTS
OF SUN CONTINUED TO OCCUR AND RISING HEIGHTS...MAX TEMPS WILL BE
EVEN WARMER. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AS WELL. THERE MAY BE A MORE
CLOUDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING...BUT IT
WILL REMAIN DRY.  TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL TO THE MID
50S TO LOW 60S THANKS TO THE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF HUMIDITY AND THE
MORE CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING THE REGION ITS FIRST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SINCE THE ABOUT APRIL 21ST.

GUIDANCE INDICATES RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH A WEAK LOW MEANDERING AROUND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN WHILE
THE LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHWARD. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY OPENS
AS IT HEADS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE FLOW ALOFT WILL PARALLEL THE BOUNDARY CAUSING ITS TO
STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE LOCAL AREA WILL
REMAIN IN A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST.
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE BOUNDARY
EDGES CLOSER.

AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES MONDAY
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 12Z/THURSDAY.

A COLD FRONT HAS BECOME STALLED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA AND THE NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THE LIKELIHOOD ANY SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT KPOU IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. OTHERWISE
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
DECREASING AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING ANY CUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE AND THERE WILL BE CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS AREA EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...
THU-FRI-NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE REGION IS DRY...THERE ARE A FEW RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...INCLUDING THE AREA
NEAR THE ROOSA GAP FIRE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ULSTER COUNTY. ANY
PRECIP LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.  THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL END
BY LATER THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUDS BREAKING FOR SUNSHINE OVER
THE ENTIRE REGION. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH S-SW WINDS AT 5 MPH OR LESS.

RH VALUES SHOULD RECOVER NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN
DROP TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY S TO SW AT 5
TO 10 MPH.

WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...RH VALUES LOOK TO ONLY DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. TOTAL QPF OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A RAIN SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THIS WEEKEND. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.

AS A RESULT...RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL EITHER HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY
RECEDE THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



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