Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 191950
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
350 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN RAIN MIDDAY MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THAT TIME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AND
VERY COOL THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

A BEAUTIFUL END TO OUR WEEKEND ALBEIT A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH DOESN`T LOOK ALL
THAT GOOD.

WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF THOSE CHANGES IN THE FORM OF SOME
THIN WISPY HIGH CLOUDS. THESE ARE WELL AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NOW OVER ILLINOIS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN WELL AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO
ISSUES BUT A QUICK SHOT OF STEADY RAIN IS LIKELY FOR EVERYONE.

THE BIG STORY TONIGHT MAY BE THE WIND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT FAVOR A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. WHILE WE ARE
VERY STABLE JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP AND RAIN WILL LIKELY
TEMPER WINDS A BIT, STRONG WINDS UNDER THE INVERSION WILL FAVOR
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS ON THE HILLTOPS. IN GENERAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH
ARE LIKELY TONIGHT FOR MOST OF US. FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. THIS INCLUDES THE CATSKILLS, HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEPA AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND THE HILLS SOUTH
OF SYRACUSE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 40
MPH ACROSS AREAS SUCH AS SEMPRONIUS, POMPEY, GEORGETOWN, IN THE
FAVORED SOUTHEAST FLOW AREAS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE.

MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS STILL FAVORS THE STEADIER RAIN SLIDING EAST AND
PERHAPS EVEN OUT OF OUR AREA BY MIDDAY. MOST OF OUR AREA WILL GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY GIVE US JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY,
ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN SEE SOME SUN, TO COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING DURING THE EVENING FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SPC DAY 2
OUTLOOK HAS MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK TOWARD OUR AREA AND JUST BRUSHES
SOUTHERN LUZERNE COUNTY. IN ADDITION A MARGINAL RISK (OLD SEE TEXT
FROM PAST YEARS) IS NOW UP TO NEAR THE NY STATE THRUWAY. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST. SHEAR VALUES ARE
GOOD BUT IT WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE CAN REALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE SEVERE RISK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. WITH
LINGERING INSTABILITY, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ALL HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE POINTS TO THE POTENTIAL
OF A SQUALL LINE BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY AND 03Z TUESDAY ROUGHLY FROM
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY INTO NEPA. ADJUSTED OUR CURRENT HWO TO
REFLECT THIS THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEPA, WHICH IS CLOSE TO
WHAT SPC IS FORECASTING FOR SEVERE RISK.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT, THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED
UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WE WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR FILTER INTO THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 50S) BUT THEN BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. IN FACT SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S
FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS WILL
SEE JUST RAIN SHOWERS. 850 TEMPS DO DROP BELOW ZERO BY WED MORNING
SO A STRAY FLAKE COULDN`T BE RULED OUT IN CNY EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT THE APPRECIABLE COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES FROM NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO NOVA SCOTIA.
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS EACH DAY. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SFC
OCCLUSION AND DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS AS COLD POOL ALOFT AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE COVERAGE. AIRMASS IS COLD ENOUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS FOR A SNOW/RAIN SHOWER MIX. TEMPS
WILL RUN 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY AND
SPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVER THE REGION THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING. LIGHT UNRESTRICTED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN
06Z-09Z. TOWARD DAYBREAK MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS.

E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING STRONG LATER OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT 12-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT-FRI...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA...ESP
MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM



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