Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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000
FXUS65 KBYZ 280913
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
313 AM MDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

STRONG UPPER RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE REGION WITH 500MB HEIGHTS OF
576+ DAM OVER WESTERN MT. WEAK SFC GRADIENT/LIGHT WINDS AND
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD YIELD A LITTLE FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS FROM NEAR
BILLINGS EASTWARD...AND SURE ENOUGH AS OF 3AM WE ARE STARTING TO
SEE FOG AT BHK. OTHERWISE A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
SHOULD SEE HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER TO
MID 70S IN OUR WEST.

RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEPER SW
FLOW AND MIXING...WITH THE GFS SHOWING MIXING TO NEAR 600MB.
FORECAST 700MB TEMPS TO +6C SHOULD YIELD HIGHS TO OR A BIT IN
EXCESS OF 80F ACROSS OUR WEST AND CENTRAL PARTS TOMORROW. COULD BE
THE WARMEST DAY YET OF 2015 FOR LIVINGSTON AND BILLINGS.

BASED ON LIFTED INDICES NEAR -2C IN ADDITION TO LOCATION OF A SFC
COLD FRONT...AND ELEVATED SREF TSTM PROBABILITIES AT 00Z...HAVE
ADDED ISOLD MENTION OF TS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WEST
NEAR LIVINGSTON AND HARLOWTON. BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE AFTER
00Z AS A COUPLE SHORTWAVES IMPACT OUR REGION. THE FIRST WILL BE A
GLANCING BLOW THROUGH CENTRAL MT AND THIS SHOULD FAVOR OUR NW
PARTS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS IN THE EVENING. STRONGER PIECE OF
ENERGY WILL MOVE THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE
RAISED POPS INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS MUCH OF OUR WEST.
EXPECT THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO ALSO BRING A PUSH OF GUSTY NW
WINDS...WITH 850MB WINDS OF 25-35 KTS DURING TIME OF COLD
ADVECTION. OVERALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT STRONGER AND WETTER
WITH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PACIFIC SHORTWAVE.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN
IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE
BIGGEST POTENTIAL FOR DISAGREEMENT BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
CANADIAN TROF DAY 6-8.

FOR THURSDAY...MODELS HAVE TRENDED PROGRESSIVELY QUICKER WITH
TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR
WESTERN ZONES...SHIFTING THROUGH EASTERN ZONES BY MID AFTERNOON.
THUS TRENDED TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER FOR THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK MODEST ONCE THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST OF THE DIVIDE. A
QUICK MOVING LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
ABOUT IT...WITH DRYING QUICKLY FILLING IN WITH WESTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BEGIN TO SEE MORE ENERGY AND
MOISTURE WORK IN OFF THE PACIFIC INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH DEVELOPING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN THAT WOULD BRING DOWN
SOME COOLER CANADIAN AIR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. LATEST
ECMWF..SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN...HAS TRENDED BACK TO A PREVIOUS
COOLER/WETTER SOLUTION. WHILE THE GFS...SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY
OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED
LEADING TO A WARMER DRIER SOLUTION. KEPT IDEA OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS AND TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD UNTIL MODELS GET MORE
CONSISTENT. CHAMBERS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. HOWEVER...PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
ARE LIKELY AROUND SUNRISE WITH VISIBILITY POTENTIALLY DOWN TO
1/2SM AT TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 047/081 049/068 042/071 044/073 047/063 042/065
    0/U 00/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    22/T    22/T
LVM 076 040/079 041/063 035/067 038/068 039/064 034/063
    0/U 02/T    32/T    11/B    01/B    22/T    22/T
HDN 075 040/082 047/069 042/072 043/074 047/064 042/067
    0/U 00/U    22/T    11/B    11/B    22/T    22/T
MLS 071 043/081 050/069 042/071 046/074 047/064 040/065
    0/U 00/U    23/T    11/B    01/B    22/T    22/T
4BQ 070 039/080 047/067 040/071 043/074 047/066 041/064
    0/U 00/U    02/T    11/B    11/B    12/T    22/T
BHK 067 039/074 046/066 041/068 044/072 046/064 037/062
    0/U 00/U    02/T    11/B    01/B    22/T    22/T
SHR 069 036/078 044/063 038/068 041/070 043/062 039/061
    0/U 00/U    12/T    11/U    11/B    12/T    33/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



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