Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 262342
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
742 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEDGE FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING AND IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SHARP NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
WEDGE IN THE MIDDLE 50S AND TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE WEDGE IN THE
80S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL DUE TO SOME STRONG WINDS
AND DRIER AIR LOFT.

WEDGE FRONT WILL PUSH TO OUR SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT...THEN THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE WEST BY MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND/OR
PUSH TO OUR SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT. COOL AND GENERALLY DRY AIR
WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY
MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO
EXPECT LOW-LEVELS TO REMAIN WELL MIXED OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
COOLER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH READINGS IN THE 50S FOR MOST
AREAS. BIGGEST DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...WHILE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL ONLY SEE A SLOW TREND TONIGHT DUE TO THE
FACT THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE WEDGE ALREADY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM REMAINS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SLOWER
WITH LESS MOISTURE. AS SUCH EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN IN THE CSRA
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTHWARD REACHING THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG
THE GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CUT OFF LOW SLOWLY CROSSING
FROM THE MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
THURSDAY AND FINALLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDINESS THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GFS MOS AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATED
MVFR OR VFR CEILINGS. THE NAM MOS SHOWED A PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS. BASED ON THE INITIAL LOW-LEVEL DRYNESS AND EXPECTED WIND
WE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS GUIDANCE WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS. THE GFS LAMP HAD NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHOULD HELP PREVENT FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MODELS
DISPLAYED LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BACKING TO MAINLY NORTHWEST WITH
DRYING DURING THE DAY MONDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ALONG THE GULF
COAST MAY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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