Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 041010
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
610 AM UPDATE...ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF FOG SHOWING UP ON SOME OF
THE WEB CAMS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT A LOT LESS
THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE A BATCH
OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT AGL MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST...ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES AND OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THE 925 MB TEMP ON THE
00Z KCAR SOUNDING LAST EVENING WAS +14C AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
HAVE A 925 MB TEMP OF +19C THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL
OF MID SUMMER. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BOOST DUE TO A BIT OF
DOWNSLOPING SW WIND ALTHOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL NOT BE IDEAL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A BIT OF COMPRESSIONAL HEATING JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ORGANIZING OFF TO THE NW OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR
INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE NORTH THROUGH THE ALLAGASH. TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER ALONG THE COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT WILL LIKELY BECOME
SCATTERED AS THEY APPROACH THE DOWNEAST REGION. QPF WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AT MOST LOCALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE WITH LITTLE/NO MEASURABLE RAIN
DOWNEAST. THE BEST CAPE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE JUST TO THE NW OF
THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE TIMING NOT BEING FAVORABLE FOR A
VERY HIGH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SHOWERS ENTER THE AREA
MOSTLY AFTER 00Z. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL BE THE WARM/DRY WEATHER AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING AND
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, EXPECT ANY LINGERING
COASTAL SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY AFTERNOON. A DRIER
AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE
GUSTY SIDE AS WE MIX TO 750MB. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
ALLOW DOWNEAST MAINE TO TOP OUT AROUND 70.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE`S NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS BOUNDARY, SO OUTSIDE
OF PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE, THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER, IT WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR. AS SUCH, MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE A GOOD 5
DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
AGAIN AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER
THE REGION. THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
DRAPE A WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
NORTH THIS BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO LIFT AS THE LOW TREKS EASTWARD.
THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONGER RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE, BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE THAT THE FRONT WILL
HANG UP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MAINE, KEEPING THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR EARLY
MAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY EARLY MORNING
FOG THAT COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE THE VSBY AT KBHB.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINAL. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES TODAY WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH
AROUND MID MORNING. THE SEAS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT WILL CAP THEM AT 5 FT AND HOLD OFF ON A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW.  THE DAYSHIFT WILL LIKELY WISH TO
REEVALUATE AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT DURATION SCA ON
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID WEEK. THE
RELATIVELY COOL WATER WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MIXING, KEEPING
HIGHER WINDS AWAY FROM THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, BOTH WINDS AND WAVES
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WELL MIXED TO AROUND 700
MILLIBARS THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING STRONGER SW WIND TO MIX DOWN TO
THE SFC THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THE AIR
MASS TODAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPS APPROACHING 80
DEGREES FROM INTERIOR DOWNEAST NORTH TO THE ALLAGASH. THE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 22 TO 27
PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WIND WILL LEAD
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND THUS THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING.

LOW RH`S...GUSTY AFTERNOON WIND...AND NO RAINFALL THROUGH THU WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE FOREFRONT THIS WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...CB


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