Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 252348
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
748 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI TO THE
CAROLINA COAST WILL BRING THE RISK OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
2 PM UPDATE...

DEFORMATION CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAK ESE COVERING ABOUT THE SWRN
HALF OF THE REGION. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF RAIN
FROM NRN ILLINOIS ALL THE WAY TO THE MID ATL COAST. THE AREA IS
TRANSLATING SLOWLY NORTHEAST WHILE MOVING GENERALLY OFF TO THE
EAST. THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND MAY ACTUALLY WORK OUT
TO BE OUR FRIEND...AT LEAST FRIENDLY IN THE RESPECT THAT THE
STRONG NW FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
WORK TO SQUEEZE THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST OFF MAINLY SOUTH
OF PA. MY FAR SRN ZONES ALONG THE MD BORDER WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE PRECIP FROM LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THE FURTHER NORTH ONE
GETS IN THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST RUNS OF OUR HIGH RES SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALL AGREE WITH THE RAIN REACHING SOMERSET AND BEDFORD
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET...BEFORE SETTLING OFF TO THE SE AGAIN AND
BEING SOUTH OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THE SREF AND GEFS TAKE AN
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH...BOTH A LITTLE
WETTER/MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THEIR OPERATIONAL COUNTERPARTS.

WITH THE PRECIP TRACKING THROUGH MY SRN ZONES LATE...MODELS DO
AGREE THAT JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD BE IN PLACE AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAT SOME WET SNOW WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY. BOTH THE SREF AND GEFS
THREATS OUTPUT SHOW AS MUCH AS A 30% PROB OF RAIN MIXING WITH
SNOW. ACTUAL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE THAN A
COATING...IF THAT MUCH.

LOWS FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WILL BE SOME 5-10
DEG BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
WHILE THE MAIN WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST
GETS PINCHED OFF TO OUR SOUTH...UPPER TROUGHING AROUND THE STRONG
LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS WILL FEED ANY NUMBER OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES DOWN AROUND THE ITS BACK SIDE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE...BUT THE COLD AIR
ALOFT AND STRONG APRIL SUN COULD CONSPIRE TO POP OFF SOME LOW
TOPPED SHOWERS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF
FOR THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN TIER...WHILE THE GEFS AND
SREF IMPLY SHOWERS WILL BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE. AT
THIS POINT I WILL DOWNPLAY THE CHANCES.

IT LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE UNSEASONABLY CHILLY SIDE DESPITE WHAT
SHOULD WORK OUT TO BE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS
NORTH AMERICA WILL KEEP THE REGION IN UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE BLOCKED UP NRN STREAM...GENERALLY
NW FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TEND TO SHUNT SRN STREAM
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF PA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK A SHOT OF COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD ACROSS PA FROM AN UPPER LOW
OVR NEW ENG. COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOC WITH UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GOOD DEAL OF DAYTIME CLOUDINESS AND SCT SHRA /ESP OVR
THE MTNS/ MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

BY MIDWEEK...THIS LOW FINALLY LIFTS OUT FOR GOOD..BUT DIGGING
TROUGH FROM UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY
LATE WEEK...COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT
OF THE S PLAINS TOWARD THE E COAST WILL BRING POSSIBILITY OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
TRACK/STRENGTH STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE
WE/LL BE BETWEEN THAT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND A HIGH OVER OHIO
VALLEY...LIKELY KEEPING CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS AROUND AS TEMPS
COOL BACK DOWN A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS MVFR CONDITIONS
AT JST LATER TONIGHT...LOOKING AT JUST HIGH AND MID LVL
CLDS AT OTHER SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LVL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME LOWER CLDS AND PERHAPS
A SHOWER TO BFD LATE SUNDAY. FOR NOW...LEFT FCST FOR BFD
VFR.

MORE IN THE WAY OF WIND AND SHOWERS FOR MONDAY INTO TUE...AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND UPPER LVL HEIGHTS FALL.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR WED INTO THU...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST.

OUTLOOK...

MON-TUE...VFR...AREAS OF MVFR WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

WED-THU...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AVIATION...MARTIN


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