Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 260953
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
353 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH REGION TODAY WITH A
MIX OF STRONG WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY. WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE AREAS ALONG THE BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS OF THE GILA REGION AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS MIXED WITH RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER
TODAY AND REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A LARGE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THERE WILL BE MIX OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH STRONG WEST WINDS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN IN THE GILA REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST DURING DAY WITH ALL ZONES
HAVING A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN. DECENT LAPSE RATES AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ALSO FAVOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
SMALL HAIL AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COLD
SYSTEM WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 7500 FEET THIS MORNING WITH
A RAIN SNOW MIX EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. CONVECTIVE SNOW
BURSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD QUICKLY BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES
OF SNOW TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS ABOVE 8000 FEET. THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TODAY.

ANOTHER FEATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE STRONG WEST WINDS.
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING AND REMAIN
STRONG FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER FOR AREAS ALONG
TH INTERNATIONAL BORDER INCLUDING THE LAS CRUCES AND EL PASO METRO
AREAS. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES AND ALONG
EAST SLOPES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
DECOUPLE FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM THROUGH 9 PM TODAY FOR THE STRONG WINDS.
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST MAY OCCUR NEAR DISTURBED SOIL AREAS BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED BE WIDESPREAD.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED ON MONDAY AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL
INTERACT WITH WEAKER SECONDARY WAVES AND A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAINLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOR LOWLANDS
GENERALLY EAST OF LAS CRUCES. COLDER AIR BEING TRANSPORTED INTO
THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
DEPRESSED AND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR EASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE COLD
FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED ALL THE WAY TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BY
TUESDAY WITH A LINGERING CHANCE OF A FEW MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS
FOR THE GILA REGION INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWLANDS TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY.

A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW
MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING ENOUGH STABILITY TO END RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. DAY TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND ON WEDNESDAY THAT WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM UP ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.
THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE FOR NEXT
WEEKEND AS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED INTO THE
REGION AS PART A WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW. DYNAMIC FORCING FROM WEAK
IMPULSES IN THE FLOW COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAY TIME
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY AND NEXT SUNDAY. THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE HIGH BASED AND WILL PRODUCE VERY LITTLE RAIN BUT COULD
STILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 26/12Z-27/12Z...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY.
AREAS OF -SHRA AND -TSRA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
06Z. OVER THE LOWLANDS...MINOR REDUCTIONS TO VSBY WITH 5SM IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO BETWEEN 3-4 KFT AGL AFT 18Z
AND RISING BACK UP ABOVE 12KFT AFT 0Z. MTN REGIONS OF THE GILA AND
SAC MTNS WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIMITS TO VSBY IN
HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. CIGS WILL BE BELOW 3000 FEET
WITH MOUNTAIN TOPS OBSCURED. STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM WITH WEST WINDS 26 TO 36 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AT KELP, KLRU AND KDMN THROUGH 00Z. SMALL PATCHES OF
BLOWING DUST NEAR DISTURBED SOIL AREAS POSSIBLE. MODERATE TO HEAVY
TURBULENCE NEAR AND EAST OF LOCAL MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY
WITH A MIX OF STRONG WEST WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MOUNTAIN REGIONS WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE ABOVE 7500 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWLANDS WILL SEE
LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF RAIN WITH SPOTTY ACCUMULATIONS. VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ABOVE CRITICAL RED FLAG THRESHOLDS DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

COOLER BUT STILL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL
HAVE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WITH VERY LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH
LIGHTER WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE GILA REGION. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  50  72  47  71 /  30   0  10   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           69  44  68  41  65 /  20   0  20  10   0
LAS CRUCES              68  41  70  41  69 /  30  10  10   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              66  41  67  40  69 /  40  20  20  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              44  30  47  28  50 /  60  40  40  20   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   64  44  66  41  69 /  40  20  20  10   0
SILVER CITY             55  36  64  39  65 /  60  20  30  10   0
DEMING                  66  39  72  41  71 /  40  10  10   0   0
LORDSBURG               65  36  72  41  72 /  50  10  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  49  71  47  70 /  30   0  10   0   0
DELL CITY               70  44  69  41  66 /  20   0  20  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            74  47  73  45  70 /  20   0  10  10   0
LOMA LINDA              64  43  65  42  64 /  30   0  10  10   0
FABENS                  71  45  71  44  69 /  30   0  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            69  44  71  43  69 /  30   0  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          67  46  68  45  68 /  30  10  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           67  36  69  36  69 /  40  10  20  10   0
HATCH                   67  40  71  41  70 /  40  20  20  10   0
COLUMBUS                67  45  72  45  69 /  30   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               66  44  67  43  68 /  30  10  20  10   0
MAYHILL                 53  37  50  32  55 /  50  30  40  20  10
MESCALERO               51  34  51  31  56 /  60  40  40  20   0
TIMBERON                52  34  53  33  55 /  60  40  30  10   0
WINSTON                 56  38  61  33  63 /  60  20  30  20  10
HILLSBORO               61  39  67  38  69 /  40  20  20  10   0
SPACEPORT               65  39  68  37  69 /  40  20  20  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            53  34  61  36  65 /  70  20  30  20  10
HURLEY                  58  35  66  38  67 /  50  20  20  10   0
CLIFF                   62  34  71  39  73 /  70  20  30  10  10
MULE CREEK              58  31  69  34  71 /  70  20  20  10  10
FAYWOOD                 59  37  65  39  66 /  40  20  20  10   0
ANIMAS                  67  40  72  43  72 /  40   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 67  38  73  41  72 /  40   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          68  39  72  41  71 /  30   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              64  39  69  41  69 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NMZ401>417.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

04/04




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