Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 211006
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 AM MST TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DELIVER COOL AND
SHOWERY WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS ON
SATURDAY WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS, EXPECTED TO WOBBLE
AROUND TO THE WEST OF ARIZONA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF
THE LOW WILL PLACE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
ARIZONA. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR A GRADUAL DRYING OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GENERALLY FEWER AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THE CALIFORNIA LOW HEADING
ACROSS ARIZONA. THE RESULTING INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN MOVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS ARIZONA AND WARMER
AIR ALOFT. FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IF WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY WILL BE DIMINISHED COMPARED TO CURRENT
GRIDDED FORECAST. MODEL UNCERTAINTIES ARE SUCH THAT WE WILL WAIT
ANOTHER RUN. IN ANY CASE, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS ARIZONA ON SATURDAY WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LINGERING
MOISTURE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARM/DRY AIR MASS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SFC WINDS S-SW 10-20KT 18Z-02Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND FAR NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
WITH BREEZY WINDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. ADDITIONALLY...EXPECT
A COOLING TREND AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. DRYING
TREND STARTS SATURDAY.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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