Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 262201 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
501 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN DONE TO ADD THE NEW TORNADO WATCH 121.
HAVE ALSO LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE AREA EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR
FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

58

&&

.AVIATION...

/ISSUED 1256 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE SEVERE.

CONVECTION IS ONGOING SOUTHWEST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES AND JUST
TO THE WEST OF WACO. THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED...AND BASED AROUND
10KFT. STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO TURBULENCE IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LIGHTNING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE
METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
INCREASES DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. IT APPEARS
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE METROPLEX WILL
OCCUR AFTER 02Z. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON AN AREA
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A
STRONG LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP AND RIDE THE BOUNDARY
EASTWARD TOWARD THE METROPLEX TAF SITES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS
SOLUTION IS FAR FROM CERTAIN...BUT THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE WHICH LENDS CREDENCE TO THIS SCENARIO. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SOLUTION WOULD BE VERY STRONG WINDS...BUT
ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.

THE LINE OF STORMS BEING ADVERTISED ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO IMPACT THE WACO TAF SITE.
HOWEVER... WACO WILL BE THREATENED BY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE. AGAIN...ALL TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL TEXAS.

AFTER STORMS CLEAR OUT EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING...SOME BORDERLINE
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT TAF SITES ON THE LOW END OF MVFR FOR NOW
SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE POST-CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT
TOMORROW.

STALLEY


&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

WITH THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST ON OUR SHORT TERM SEVERE WEATHER
EVOLUTION...WILL KEEP THE DISCUSSION WITH REGARDS TO THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST BRIEF. THE DISCUSSION REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT REMAINS MOSTLY VALID STILL AT 2
PM...SO LEFT THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE APPENDED BELOW.

CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE FOR TODAY...THE 18Z SUBJECTIVE
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WAS OCCURRING
FARTHER NORTH THAN WHAT MODELS WERE INDICATING THIS MORNING. IF
THE SURFACE LOW DOES NOT DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...THE PRIMARY INGREDIENTS FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE DFW METROPLEX THIS
EVENING. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN THROUGH 00Z AND THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS FOR SUPERCELLS
WILL EXIST AT THAT TIME AS A RESULT. THE BEST WINDOW FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE CWA...EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE 5 PM TO 10 PM TIME FRAME.
WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW CLOSELY
THIS AFTERNOON BECAUSE IF IT SETS UP FARTHER NORTH...THE BIGGEST
THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY MOVE AWAY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
AND TOWARDS THE DFW AREA. WILL HAVE TO JUST SEE WHAT HAPPENS AT
THIS POINT. ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WHILE THERE MAY NOT
BE MANY STORMS...THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO POSE A
VERY HIGH THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES
WHEREVER SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

A SQUALL LINE STILL LOOKS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA OR ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS SQUALL LINE
STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE VERY ORGANIZED AND POSE A WIDESPREAD
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE THREAT FOR FLOODING APPEARS TO BE UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR TRAINING STORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE VERY LIKELY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE MODE AND OVERALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF A LARGE SQUALL
LINE/DERECHO MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...IT MAY
LEAVE A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR MONDAY. UNTIL WE KNOW WHAT HAPPENS
WITH STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY THE
EXACT THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE STRONG
LIFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND
THERE WILL BE MOISTURE...SO OVERALL POPS ARE QUITE HIGH IN THE 50
TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A SUFFICIENT
AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONDITIONS NEAR THE SURFACE MAY BE COOL AND
CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY TOMORROW. AT THIS TIME...THINK THAT THE LOCATIONS WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL TEND TO BE
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AS THE OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE IS MOST LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO REEVALUATE THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TOMORROW MORNING AFTER THE SQUALL LINE
HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTH
TEXAS...CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME STORMS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE UPPER LOW AS THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER SKIES WILL
LIKELY BE OVERCAST...SO SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEAR TO BE VERY
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW...SO
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER...AND LOWEST POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

CAVANAUGH

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  69  53  63  48 /  70  60  60  20   5
WACO, TX              64  76  54  65  46 /  60  60  40  10   0
PARIS, TX             56  66  52  63  45 /  70  70  70  30   5
DENTON, TX            62  66  52  63  45 /  70  60  60  20   5
MCKINNEY, TX          60  66  52  63  46 /  70  70  70  20   5
DALLAS, TX            63  69  53  63  50 /  70  60  60  20   5
TERRELL, TX           61  70  54  63  48 /  60  70  70  20   5
CORSICANA, TX         64  73  54  64  48 /  60  60  60  20   0
TEMPLE, TX            64  81  55  66  48 /  60  30  40  10   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     61  71  53  63  46 /  70  60  40  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

/58



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