Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 242026
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
226 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...A LITTLE BIT OF
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED AS WELL. GIVEN THESE OBSERVATIONS WILL
KEEP THUNDER MENTION IN THE WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TONIGHT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. WITH
PLENTY OF PACIFIC MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME PLACES
TO SEE HEALTHY WETTING RAINS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A FEW
LOCATIONS THAT PICK UP LESSER AMOUNTS. A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY
WILL HELP FOCUS PRECIPITATION AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SPLIT AS IT TRANSLATES EAST WITH THE
NORTHERN PIECE REMAINING AN INFLUENCE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE GIVEN ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL FORCING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. MALIAWCO

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE FORECAST
LARGELY ON TRACK. AS A TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD...AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL PROBABLY REACH THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN BY ABOUT TUESDAY. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PHASE WITH TROF
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH MOISTURE BEING
PULLED NORTHWARD. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE OVER THE
EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT...FOR CONTINUING SHOWERS INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AS TROF MOVES EAST ON MONDAY AND RIDGE REBOUNDS
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR
NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...WITH DETERMINING HOW
PERSISTENT THE RIDGE IS...AND CAN SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE WEST
COAST TROF BREAK IT DOWN. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH FLATTENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE STATE. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE GFS WHILE STILL STRONGER
WITH THE RIDGE...HAS PUSHED IT EAST ALLOWING SHOWERS TO GENERATE
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. EBERT


&&

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN STATES IS BRINGING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AS WELL.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE PAST NOON ON SATURDAY ALONG A COLD
FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT AROUND 5 TO 10KTS AND BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KTS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE 5000 FT AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE 6MILES
PLUS...EXCEPT IN ANY ISOLATED AREAS WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. MARTIN


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





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