Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 191737
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING OVER NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THAT SAID...EXPECT SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP
AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH
SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF CAPE...CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...BUT WITH MINIMAL SHEAR...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED...AND HENCE NO STRONG
OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. WITH A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RAPID PRESSURE RISES...EXPECT WINDS TO GENERALLY BE SUSTAINED
OUT OF THE NORTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH...AND THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED
WITH A TEMPERATURE DROP OF NEAR 10C BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL MAKE
FOR A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON.

WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT STEADY
BUT LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PROHIBIT MUCH
FROST FORMATION DESPITE THE ELEVATED DEWPOINTS...DROPPING
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
FALL INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...BUT THINK THE COLDER NIGHT WILL COME TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ON MONDAY THE WINDS WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. DEW POINTS
WILL BE LOW ENOUGH AND EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WITH THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO MOVE TO THE
EAST ON TUESDAY. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THERE IS A LITTLE WARM
ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE COOL TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT JUST A BIT WARMER THAN MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH LINGERS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MODELS HAVE A SIMILAR
PATTERN...BUT HAVE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN THE REALIZED WEATHER THAT
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY SOUTH IN THE AREA...BUT THE ECMWF HAS MORE
THAN THE GFS. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE IS A STRONGER WAVE ON
THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS CONTINUES THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE ECMWF
THAN THE GFS. FINALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS CLOSES THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND HAS MORE PRECIPITATION...WHICH CONTINUES OVER THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION
AROUND FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND THE BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. NEITHER THE GFS OR THE ECMWF HAVE INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA
SO EXPECT JUST SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...AS
THE LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER
LEVEL LOW SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. EXPECTING
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS BROUGHT STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...WITH
SPEEDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR 40
MPH. THESE WINDS...LIKE THE SKY COVER...WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ADP


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