Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 060459
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS... REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY CREEPING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TERMINALS FROM
THE HILL COUNTRY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE... COUPLED WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS /09-10Z/. HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SOMEWHAT ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY AND DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL ONLY MENTION TSRA FOR COLLEGE STATION...
HUNTSVILLE... AND CONROE BUT OVERNIGHT AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE... SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER GUSTS 20 TO 20 KNOTS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TERMINAS AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INSTABILITY WANING QUICKLY ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
REGION BUT NOT SO QUICKLY IN THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
DROP MENTION OF PRECIP EAST THIS EVENING THEN REINTRODUCE AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND RAISED POPS IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT.

IMPRESSIVE EXIT REGION TRAVERSING THROUGH DEL RIO TO AUSTIN AREA
AND LOOKS TO BE HELPING TO FIRE OFF STORMS FROM NEAR KPEZ-KSAT-
KEDC. THIS EXIT REGION SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD BUT MAY HELP THOSE
STORMS TO THE WEST BACKBUILD. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...PROBABLY AFTER
930 OR SO THEY MAY REACH THE BURLESON COUNTY AREA. IN ADDITION THE
LLJ IS TAPPING INTO THE VERY MOIST AIR IN THE COASTAL BEND REGION
(00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWING A VERY MOIST SFC-700MB LAYER AND PW
1.8") AND PULLING IT NORTH TO COLLIDE WITH THE DEVELOPING STORMS
TO THE WEST. ATTM HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES MODELS MOVE
THESE STORMS EAST IN THE CENTRAL AREAS OF SETX AFTER 3 AM BUT
THIS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET THEM THAT FAR EAST BUT CERTAINLY INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS A GREATER POSSIBILITY. WIDESPREAD
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BLANKET THE NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS
WELL.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  84  71  84  71 /  40  30  20  30  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  84  72  86  72 /  20  20  10  20  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            73  81  74  81  75 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$


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