Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 271911
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
311 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... WHAT FEW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND WILL
DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET AS HEATING ABATES AND MIXING BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW AND LESS VIGOROUS. THIS LEAVES A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FOG
HOWEVER AS CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION COMPLIMENTS OF HIGH WELL TO
OUR NORTH TO EVENTUALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER THAN EXPECTED
LOW TEMPS. SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS MAY IMPINGE UPON SOUTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT AS WEAKENING MCS CROSSES NORTHEAST GOMEX AND ANOTHER UPPER
JET TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE ONE CURRENTLY EXITING
TO OUR EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY GET DISPLACED AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE GULF COAST. TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY END UP A NICE DAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
BEFORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SW TO
NE. THIS CLOUD COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT...AND ONCE CLOUDS DEVELOP THEY WILL SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED PRECIP ONSET...LIKELY DUE TO THE
DRYNESS OF THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE NC
COUNTIES WILL STAY DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SC LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY SHAPING UP TO BE A PRETTY WET DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE 290 AND 295 K SURFACES...CAUSING A
FULL SATURATED COLUMN AND PERIODS OF RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF COAST AND OFF THE EASTERN SEA
BOARD WHILE LIFTING NE THROUGH WED NIGHT. GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WILL
HELP THIS LOW STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST...AND WILL LIKELY
TRACK ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS IT GETS PULLED NORTH BY A DEEP
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE OH VLY. PERIODS OF MDT TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASING WINDS WITHIN THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT.

TEMPS TUESDAY WILL RISE TO AROUND 70 AS COLD ADVECTION KEEPS HIGHS
WELL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR...AS
CLOUDS AND RAIN LIMIT WARMING EVEN AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD ABOVE NORMAL MID/UPR 50S...WHICH WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY NIGHTS MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...POTENT AND DEEP STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE OFF CAPE HATTERAS INITIALLY AND ACCELERATE WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WE HAVE A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
OF POPS FROM HIGH CHANCE TO CHANCE THURSDAY AS THE HEAVY AND
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE ENDED. SAME GRADIENT FOR OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY WITH LOWER POPS AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS.
WEATHER STILL LOOKS NICE AND QUIET BEYOND THIS AS THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EVENTUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AVIATION-WISE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL NOT BE A FACTOR...PERHAPS SOME
HIGH BASED CU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY
FLOW. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO DRY
MOISTURE PROFILES. TUESDAY...MORE OF THE SAME WITH SOME INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW. VFR
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY THIS IS CREATING A MINOR
GRADIENT. HOWEVER AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL
EXTEND A WEAK RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND THE GRADIENT MAY
INCREASE TO THE TUNE OF A CATEGORY WORTH OF WINDS. LATEST RUN OF
LOCALLY RUN SWAN KEEPS SEAS CAPPED AT 4 FT. WHILE A STRAY GUST OF
25KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUSTAINED WIND AND SEAS STILL APPEAR TO
REMAIN BELOW SCEC THRESHOLDS.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD BUT A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING UP THE COAST WILL CREATE DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY WILL CREATE A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...AND NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS MOST OF THE DAY. LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
OFF GA COAST BEFORE LIFTING NE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS PINCHES THE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY TO 20-25
KTS WHILE VEERING TO THE EAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND THEN TURNING
TO THE NW BEHIND THE LOW LATE. SEAS ON TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT...BUT THEN INCREASE LATE AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WINDS RAMP UP
NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL RISE TO 4-6 FT ON THE
STRONGEST EAST WINDS...AND AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED DURING
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SEAS FALL ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE LOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE JUST OFF
THE COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SPEEDS TACK ON A COUPLE OF KNOTS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND THESE SPEEDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. SPEEDS DROP OFF A BIT BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 3-5 FEET THURSDAY DROPPING OFF
SOMEWHAT FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHER VALUES CONFINED TO THE OUTERMOST
WATERS WITH THE STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MBB/DL
MARINE...JDW/MBB/SHK


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