Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 062357 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
757 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER IN LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA
BORDER...BUT THESE HAVE GENERALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO...AS SUNSET APPROACHES. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SENT OUT AN OUTFLOW INTO THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED SLIGHTLY A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS CONVECTION IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS IN
GENERAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THAT AREA IS MARGINAL AND WILL BE
DECREASING. OTHER THAN THAT...SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RAIN
COOLED AIR IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF OUR REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM
WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER ON TAP. BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS WITH ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
IN FACT...THERE ARE A FEW STORMS THAT HAVE FORMED IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH ARE PRODUCING RAIN AND SOME LIGHTNING.
SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONALLY...A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY HELP
INCREASE LL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY JUST BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE ONCE AGAIN.

OTHERWISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TODAY AND THURSDAY...AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S...POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S ON SOME OF THE RIDGES. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. INTO THE WEEKEND...THEY ALL DEPICT A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...AN EMBEDDED AREA OF LOW HEIGHTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AND A DECENTLY STRONG TROUGH MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE PLAINS. THE SOUTHEAST LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM EASTERN
KENTUCKY TO NOT BE A FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER. THE RIDGE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG SO DO NOT
ANTICIPATE A CAP SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO RULE OUT CONVECTION AT PEAK
HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL OPEN UP ENOUGH AS IT MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS THAT BITS OF ENERGY WILL BRUSH PAST KENTUCKY JUST TO
THE NORTH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HEIGHTS WILL
FALL INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH HEADS INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES. THE ECMWF IS STILL STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH AT THE START OF
NEXT WEEK THAN THE GFS...BUT THEIR TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE SIMILAR.
THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE THAN IT WAS 24
HOURS AGO LENDING GREATER CONFIDENCE TO THE FORMER/S CONSISTENT
SOLUTION. FOR WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH/S PASSING AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
NATION. FOR THE EXTENDED WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MODEL BLEND FOR
THE BIG PICTURE WITH A LARGE DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE HOURLY POPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TO A LESSER EXTENT INTO THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING THE CONVECTION LIMITED TO
PEAK HEATING AND GENERALLY JUST OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN. MODERATE TO
LARGE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHILE TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE MIDDLE 80S
EACH AFTERNOON. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY
AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COMBINE TO GENERATE
CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY
JUST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT WHILE ITS ACTUAL MOVEMENT WILL
DETERMINING THE BEST CHANCES OF PCPN THAT NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BRING A COOL DOWN IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH A PLEASANT CHANGE OF AIR MASS ANTICIPATED
RESULTING IN HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN BETTER THAN YESTERDAY CONCERNING THE POPS
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED...BUT WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCING
THE DIURNAL CURVE EACH DAY AND GENERALLY GOING LOWER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. DID ALSO MAKE SOME RATHER LARGE CHANGES TO LOWS EACH NIGHT
GIVEN THE TERRAIN EFFECTS AND ANTICIPATED STRONG INVERSIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NIGHT TIME TEMP DIFFERENCES WERE SMALLER AFTER
THAT WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH AND POST FROPA CAA ANTICIPATED
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE REGION. ISOLATED
SHRA AND TSRA INITIALLY NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS
DAWN ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER...BUT THIS
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES EITHER. CU WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
AROUND 16Z...AND SOME ISOALTED SHRA AND TSRA IS POSSIBLE BY 18Z...
NEAR THE VA BORDER AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP



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