Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 012033
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FINAL STAGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKDOWN IS UNDERWAY AS LARGE UPPER
LOW PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
SEVERAL PV ANOMALIES ARE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW...WITH ONE MOVING ACROSS THE MT/WY BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTENDANT FRONT HAS SLOWED SOME AS PRESSURE RISES BEHIND
IT HAVE LESSENED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW FROM
RAPIDLY DECAYING SHRA IN SERN MT EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED THE
FRONT TO SURGE LOCALLY IN THE NEB PANHANDLE. AC ACROSS NEB DRIVEN BY
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND A SECOND AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS IS SEEN
IN RUC/IR SAT DATA CLOSER TO UPPER PV ANOMALY OVER WY AND MOVING
EWD. A WEAKER PV ANOMALY IS ALSO SEEN MOVING INTO WRN CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS
PRETTY DRY. STILL COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM EASTERN HOLT THROUGH WHEELER INTO EASTER CUSTER COUNTY...BUT
CHANCES ARE NOT GOOD. A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THESE WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
VORT MAX MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. AGAIN...THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND LITTLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED...AS ANY LIGHTNING STRIKE
COULD POSE A WILDFIRE RISK. WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THIS REASON ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL/PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS JUST MOVING ONSHORE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS VORT MAX APPROACHES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A FRONTOGENETIC FORCED BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN. THIS LOOKS TO FORM INITIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN SAG SOUTH LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE A TOP DOWN SATURATION EVENT...AND WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACRSS THE CONUS AS UPPER LOW
SLIDES EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IN THE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME...ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES...WITH THE PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CO IN THE WAKE OF
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE PASSING FRONT TONIGHT. AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN SERN CO A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE THURSDAY /WHICH IS ALSO UPSLOPE/ IN NERN CO AND NWRN
KS...AND WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF NEGATIVE EPV ALOFT WHICH WILL
ENHANCE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE QUICKLY MOVING PV ANOMALY.
THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE THE BULK OF PRECIP FURTHER S OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DOES DEVELOP OVER A
PORTION OF SW NEB. ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY BELOW 750 MB INITIALLY
BUT DOES SATURATE WITH THE INCREASED LARGER SCALE LIFT THAT DEVELOPS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PV ANOMALY. AS THIS
SATURATION OCCURS...WET BULB COOLING WILL ALLOW A POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE OVER TO AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...HOWEVER GROUND TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY
ACCUMS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN
RETURNING THE AREA TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE RAINFALL
CHANCES. SOME CHANCE FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT OCCURS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THAT DEVELOPS AND MOVES
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ACROSS NEB. SOME
DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LONGER RANGE MODELS AS TO WHERE THE SFC LOW
ENDS UP SUNDAY NIGHT SO CHCS LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEB FOR
NOW. WHILE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT IS SIMILAR IN EXTENDED MODELS...LARGE
SCALE EVOLUTION IN THE OUTER PERIODS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT AND
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENED PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BELOW
AVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE
RULE OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR SO LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ209-210-219.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JWS
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...TAYLOR





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