Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 060106
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
806 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ROUTINE FLIGHT TERMINATED NEAR GRAND ISLAND AT THE NORTHEAST END
OF LAKE BORGNE. FLIGHT TERMINATED AT A HEIGHT OF 106.2K FEET OR
JUST OVER 20 MILES UP.

AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BE RATHER DRY WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AT
0.82 INCHES...WHICH IS ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL. CLOUD COVER WAS
RATHER SPARSE MOST OF THE AFTERNOON LOCALLY WITH JUST SOME RATHER
FLAT CUMULUS. PRECIPITATION WAS EXTREMELY LIMITED ACROSS THE
AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED OUT TO ABOUT 765 MB TODAY...WITH EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO THAT LEVEL...SOUTHERLY
BETWEEN 765 AND 550 MB...AND WEST TO NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SOUNDING. MAX WIND OF 57 KNOTS AT 42K FEET. FREEZING LEVEL
AT 13K FEET AND -20C LEVEL AT 22.9K FEET. 35

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THEY
HAVE BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED AND HAVE ONLY BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES FOR A FEW HOURS AT A TIME. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH ONCE DAYTIME HEATING /E.G. SUNSET/ IS LOST IN A FEW HOURS.
FOR WEDNESDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM SIMILAR
TO TODAY AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER WARM...MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
A TROUGH EXITING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO FAR WEST TO WARRANT
INCREASING POPS IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AT THIS TIME. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY MAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY FRIDAY AND WILL START TO MOVE ONTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY SATURDAY AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
PLACE OUR AREA UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. LITTLE VORT
MAXES RIDING THROUGH THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THEY SHOULD BE WIDELY
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AS WE ARE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY. BY MONDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER THE 7 DAYS IS
EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH
THROUGH ON TUESDAY SO LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR.
OVER THE LONG TERM...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PERSIST WITH HIGHS NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AVIATION...

AVIATION...A RELATIVELY QUIET AVIATION FORECAST WITH SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME HEATING HOURS. A STRAY
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND POST 16Z TOMORROW AS
WELL. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP FEW TO SCT AT 25K FOR MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING IN SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. THE OVERALL GRADIENT FLOW WILL WEAKEN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE
GULF SOUTH. THIS ONSHORE FLOW OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL DROP FROM 3 TO 6 FEET IN THE
OUTER WATERS AND 2 TO 4 IN THE SOUNDS AND LAKES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW TO 2 TO 4 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE
SOUNDS AND LAKES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  60  81  63  83 /  20  20  10  10
BTR  62  82  65  84 /  20  20  10  10
ASD  64  80  65  82 /  10  20  10  10
MSY  67  81  69  82 /  20  20  10  10
GPT  66  79  67  80 /  10  10  10  10
PQL  63  80  65  82 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ550-570-
     572.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ570-572.

&&

$$



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