Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 040127 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
825 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF AR OVERNIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND CONVECTION BLOW OFF CLOUDS FROM STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE UPPER WEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME OF THE CLOUDS OVER AR.
CLOUD COULD HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT OVER THOSE AREAS. KLZK 00Z SOUNDING
SHOWING A LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP FROM THE SW WHILE PRECIP WATER
VALUE WAS UP TO 0.93 INCHES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST
AND A SOUTH SURFACE FLOW HAS BROUGHT DEW POINT TEMPS TO THE
50S...WHILE EVENING TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL FINE
TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS WITH LATE EVENING UPDATE BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXPECTED. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 630 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. OVER NORTHERN AR...A BIT MORE MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY VFR CEILINGS AT TIMES. OVERNIGHT
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN. WINDS WILL BE SE TO SW AT 5 TO 15
MPH THIS EVENING...LOWER TO LESS THAN 10 MPH AFTER SUNSET. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

A RETURN OF S/SWLY WINDS ACRS THE NATURAL STATE THIS AFTN HAS
ALLOWED FOR LOW LVL MOISTURE TO MAKE A RETURN FM THE GULF. THIS WAS
EVIDENT AS SFC DEWPOINTS CLIMBED WELL INTO THE 50S...ALONG WITH AN
EXPANDING CU FIELD OVER THE FA.

NOT TOO MANY WHOLESALE CHGS WERE MADE TO THE GOING FCST. SFC HIGH
PRES WL RMN SITUATED OVR THE SERN STATES...RESULTING IN A CONTD
WARM/MOIST SLY WIND FLOW ACRS THE MID SOUTH. MEANWHILE...AN UPR LVL
STORM SYS IS PROGGED TO MOVE ASHORE ACRS SRN CA ON MON. THE SYS IS
PROGGED TO SLOLY TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

A SERIES OF WEAKER IMPULSES WL EJECT NEWD FM THE MAIN UPR LOW ON TUE
AND WED. THESE FEATURES WL INTERACT WITH THE HIGHER LVLS OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO PRODUCE SMALL CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY OVR THE WRN
PARTS OF THE FA. TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHRTWV/S ARE ALWAYS
PROBLEMATIC...SO OPTED NOT TO DEVIATE FAR FM THE GOING POP FCST. MOS
TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO HIGH TEMPS
BASED ON EXPECTED CLOUD COVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST CORNERS
OF THE COUNTRY TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH RIDGING IN BETWEEN. THE LOW
PRESSURE AREAS WILL WOBBLE AROUND THEIR RESPECTIVE AREAS WITHOUT A
LOT OF MOVEMENT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. SMALL RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT WILL INCREASE FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. NO FRONTS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44 / LONG TERM...51










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