Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 261445
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
945 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADVANCE CLOUD COVER FURTHER SOUTH AND TO LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THICK STRATUS PROJECTED TO SINK SOUTH OF OXFORD AND TUPELO BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY OVERCAST FARTHER NORTH.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN FORECAST THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF I-40...WITH A COLD 48
DEGREES IN PARIS AS OF 9 AM. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE AND
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BELIEVE MODELS/CURRENT
FORECAST IS TO WARM...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THREE TO FIVE DEGREES.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS WAS EVIDENT ON GOES MULTICHANNEL IR IMAGERY
ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON DAYTIME TEMPS. ASSUMING
THE ELEVATED STRATUS MIXES OUT...06Z NAM CU RULE POINTS TOWARD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CUT
A FEW DEGREES OFF MOS ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
I40.

DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. BEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER MS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED GULF
MOISTURE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. 06Z NAM MODEL
PROGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES OVER NORTH
MS WILL REACH 1.2 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF I40...PW VALUES WILL
PREVAIL NEAR 0.5 INCHES...LOWER THAN CURRENT /EARLY SUNDAY MORNING/
VALUES.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS...
UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AND WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. KJBR AND KMKL ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS. KMEM SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
13Z AND KTUP BY 15Z. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 19-22Z. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. N WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



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