Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 052340 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS EVENING TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06Z TONIGHT OVER THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES BUT REMAIN NORTHEAST AT KAPF TAF SITE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE CEILING
AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS WHERE IT COULD DROP INTO MVFR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A KPBI WHERE THE CEILING COULD REMAIN IN MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE THAN 30 MINUTES AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SO
HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO KPBI TAF SITE FOR MVFR CEILING.

SOME SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
THROUGH 06Z BEFORE GOING DRY WITH KAPF TAF SITE REMAINING DRY
TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KPBI AND KFLL WHERE THE
SHOWERS WILL BE OFF AND ON MOST OF THE NIGHT. THEREFORE...VCSH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES UNTIL
06Z EXPECT ANYTIME VCSH FOR KPBI AND KFLL.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
THIS WEEK...LEADING TO GRADUALLY DECLINING RAIN CHANCES.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SFC LOPRES TROF OVER NRN BAHAMAS HAD FLARE UP OF CONVECTION NEAR
IT THIS AFTERNOON. NHC PRESENTLY GIVES SYSTEM 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN 48 HOURS, 40 PERCENT WITHIN 5
DAYS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND AWAY FROM SOUTH
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS WILL
MAINLY BE LIMITED TO MARINE AREAS IN THE FORM OF ELEVATED SEAS.
ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CANT COMPLETELY BE RULED
OUT...ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY BASED AND MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW /ALONG WITH
COOL TEMPS ALOFT/ WILL BE OVER THE REGION...SO WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR STRONG CONVECTION POTENTIAL IF INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO
INCREASE.

CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD RAIN...RNFL AMOUNTS PORTIONS OF N MIAMI-DADE AND
S BROWARD APPROACHED 2 INCHES...HAVE LED TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND RECORD LOW MAXIMA ARE BEING THREATENED AT KMIA
AND KFLL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS STILL ONGOING ON ATLANTIC WATERS...AND AT
LEAST MODERATE RISK WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WITH LITTLE DEFINED SYNOPTIC FEATURES SHOWN IN LONG RANGE
MODELS...AND POTENTIAL FOR AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TO MEANDER
OFF THE GA/CAROLINA COAST AT WEEKS END...EXTENDED FORECAST HAS
HIGHER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY. CURRENT GRIDS REFLECT NEAR
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL OF DIURNAL CONVECTION...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS INLAND ON SEA BREEZES. AS THE EVOLUTION OF
THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM BECOMES MORE APPARENT...POPS WILL
LIKELY BE REFINED.

AVIATION...
SHOWER COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE EAST COAST
SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER RAINS/CONVECTION WELL OFFSHORE.
EASTERLY WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN QUITE A BIT LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED SO
DECREASED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP VCSH THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KAPF. AS ALWAYS...BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY ISOLATED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWER THAT CROSSES A SITE.

MARINE...
EXTENDED SCA FOR ATLANTIC WATERS...MINUS BISCAYNE BAY...THROUGH
0Z...ALTHOUGH IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY. WIND AND SEAS FORECAST HAS HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF SFC LOPRES PRESENTLY OVER NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OVERALL WIND FORECAST REFLECTS THIS FEATURE MOVING NORTH
OF THE REGION...CAUSING WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTH BY LATE
TOMORROW AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  84  69  87 /  50  60  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  85  72  87 /  40  60  20  40
MIAMI            69  86  72  88 /  30  50  20  40
NAPLES           68  85  71  86 /  20  40  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....23/SK



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