Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 262127
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
527 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
520 PM...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN ARRIVAL OF PRECIP LATER
TONIGHT. GFS/NAM/SREF ALL AGREE THAT PRECIPITATION FROM
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z AND MORE SO UNTIL 12Z.
MOISTURE/LIFT NOT SUFFICIENT EARLIER IN THE NIGHT. WHEN IT DOES
ARRIVE...THINK ENOUGH COLD AIR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR A
FEW SNOWFLAKES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA IN ADDITION TO RIDGES. NOT
GOING WITH ACCUMULATION HOWEVER DUE TO VERY LIGHT NATURE OF
EXPECTED PRECIP.  TEMPERATURES IN DECENT SHAPE FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MONDAY...

SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS. CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

TEMPERATURE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD A BLEND OF MOS WHICH IS
NEAR 5 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT. STILL
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS DOUBT ON HOW MUCH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE. BY THE WEEKEND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS REGION WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE BY
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL CLOSE TO WPC TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCT-BKN VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
MID DECK AS A SHORTWAVE HEADS SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION. LATER
TONIGHT MOISTURE WILL DEEPEN WITH MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN PORTS AND
LOWERING VFR CIGS SOUTH. NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNCHANGED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS GENERALLY
NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS.

.OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$


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