Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 030621
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
421 PM CHST SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EAST WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS PREVAIL ACROSS
THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
06W FORMED THIS MORNING ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF GUAM. AN OUTER
RAIN BAND OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE PASSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF GUAM`S COASTAL WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON .
THIS RAIN BAND THREATENED TO BRING A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO GUAM TONIGHT. LATE AFTERNOON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED THAT THE BAND WAS DISSIPATING...SO HELD OFF ON ADDING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO TONIGHT`S FORECAST. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
THE SHOWERS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS TONIGHT.

MODELS MOVE THE TROPICAL  TOWARDS YAP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE SAME MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING SHOWERS WITH 06W
SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS. WINDS MAY STAY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BECAUSE OF
THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED
A SOUTHERLY SWELL TO THE FORECAST STARTING TUESDAY...FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W. AT THIS TIME MODELS DO NOT BRING IN A
LARGE SWELL...EXPECT ONLY A TWO FOOT SWELL FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W FORMED THIS MORNING SOUTH OF GUAM. MODELS
MOVE THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOWARDS YAP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM SOMETIME TONIGHT. 06W MAY BECOME A TYPHOON BY LATE TUESDAY
OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT AT THAT TIME IT SHOULD BE WEST OF YAP.
BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE THE TRACK
IS NOT WRITTEN IN STONE. BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY...INTERESTS NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CURRENT TRACK SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST. IF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GOES MORE NORTHWESTWARD WINDS COULD INCREASE
ACROSS ULITHI AND FAIS...IF FURTHER SOUTH IT MAY THREATEN KAYANGEL
OR OTHER AREAS OF PALAU.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
REGION FROM POHNPEI TO KOSRAE TO JUST SOUTH OF MAJURO. A BROAD
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI NEAR 6N155E WITH
A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD. NORTHEAST TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP CONVECTION PUSHED SOUTH OF MAJURO FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE...MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION
MEANDERING NEARLY IN PLACE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...FOCUSED ACROSS THE TWO STATES FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE FOR
THE WEEK NEAR YAP AND PALAU. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...PASSING BETWEEN YAP AND NGULU. CURRENT FORECASTS
FOR YAP CLOSELY FOLLOWS THIS TRACK WITH WINDS REACHING NEAR 40 MPH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE DOWN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. KOROR IS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY CONFINED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF TD 06W.

THE CIRCULATION JUST WEST-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI WILL KEEP SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR CHUUK. MODELS KEEP THE CIRCULATION IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE EAST SO
FOR NOW...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/W. AYDLETT



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