Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 182305
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
605 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015


.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Convective activity is diminishing over West Central Texas and
should only affect the southern terminals of KJCT and KBBD for the
next several hours; have included -TSRA through 02Z for KJCT and
KBBD. Ceilings at all terminals are expected to remain VFR through
the next 24 hours. A frontal boundary moving through the area will
result in northwesterly wind gusts to 20-25 kts around 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

..Severe Thunderstorm Threat This Evening...

Thunderstorms, some severe, will continue across much of West
Central Texas this evening. We currently have a Severe
Thunderstorms Watch in effect for all of West Central Texas until
9 PM CDT this evening. Although the best area for thunderstorms
remains along and east of a line from Haskell to Ozona, we`ll
continue at least isolated thunderstorms for all of our western
counties this evening. A loop of visible satellite imagery shows a
enhanced cumulus field across our western counties. Later this
evening, the thunderstorm threat will move east, as the upper
trough moves east. The primary thunderstorm hazards this afternoon
and evening are large hail, possibly up to two inches, damaging
winds up to 75 mph, and deadly lightning. Although the tornado
threat is lower, a tornado is possible; we`ve already received a
tornado report this afternoon, from northeastern Menard county.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

The long term forecast remains essentially the same. Models still
develop a closed low aloft, over the eastern Pacific, and bring it
over the four corners region by late next week. The resulting
southwest flow aloft, over West Central Texas, combined with a dryline
to the west, may initiate thunderstorms across all of West Central
Texas, Tuesday through Friday. Confidence as to how this system
will develop remains low; so, mainly slight chance PoPs continue
to look best at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  54  77  46  72  51 /  20   5   5   5   5
San Angelo  54  82  48  74  53 /  20   5   5   5  10
Junction  55  85  50  74  54 /  30   5   5   5  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99





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