Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 061909
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
309 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL ACT TO KEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING, EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT]...

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY STALL AS IT APPROACHES THE
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINA`S THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION SHOWS A
SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT. ON THIS COURSE, OUR CWA
WILL EXPERIENCE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS DUE TO A DEEP LAYER OF
SUBSIDENCE. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THE LATEST EURO AND GFS INITIALLY DIFFER WRT TO THE STALLED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE. HOWEVER, BOTH MODELS EVENTUALLY SEND THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED BUT WE SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY] LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINIMUM RH WILL BE
IN THE 30 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT WILL NOT
REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE HIGH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO HIGH TRANSPORT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AND RIVERS
RECEDING...THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGY CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   63  90  58  91  63 /  10   0  10  10   0
PANAMA CITY   64  84  63  84  67 /  10   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        60  88  59  92  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        59  88  57  87  64 /  10   0   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      61  90  58  89  64 /  10   0  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    61  87  59  86  65 /  10   0   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  65  84  64  86  68 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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