Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 211513
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1113 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
COOL FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH ABUNDANT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ALONG WITH A FEW SPRINKLES. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTH TODAY BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FURTHER SOUTH TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TONIGHT THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH MODELS INDICATING THAT
SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING WILL SETUP DURING THE NIGHT KEEPING CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA. IN GENERAL THE GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK
AND ONLY UPDATED TO TWEAK RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...THEN
A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD...FMY AND RSW THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COOL FRONT WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THEN VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST TONIGHT AND INCREASE SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BY TO
THE NORTH. THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS
THE WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  70  85  72 /   5  10  30  40
FMY  88  71  86  71 /  30  20  80  30
GIF  86  68  88  69 /  10  10  60  30
SRQ  83  69  84  70 /  10  20  40  40
BKV  85  61  87  64 /   0   0  30  40
SPG  83  73  84  74 /   5  10  30  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...14/MROCZKA



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