Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 191616
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME
EXCEPT FOR A FEW THIN CIRRIFORM CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH OF TUCSON.
DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER TEENS-
20S F...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY 5 DEGS F HIGHER VERSUS 24 HOURS
AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE ALSO ABOUT 5 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS
THIS TIME SAT.

19/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 0.34 INCH WAS
UNCHANGED VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. 24 HOUR TEMP CHANGE PLOT DEPICTED
WARMING OF ABOUT 2-4 DEGS C THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. 19/12Z UPPER AIR
PLOTS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SWRN KANSAS...A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE OVER SRN CALIFORNIA/NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WLY/NWLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER SE ARIZONA.

SUNNY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD DEVELOP CUMULOFORM CLOUDS. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
NEAR-SURFACE REGIME...ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...THEN CLEAR SKIES TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA WIDE LATE
TONIGHT.

19/00Z GFS/ECWMF/CMC APPEARED TO BE SIMILAR TO THEIR RESPECTIVE
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE FORECAST SCENARIO MON-SAT. PRECIP-
FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR MON-TUE AS THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PRESENTLY OVER SRN CALIFORNIA MOVES EWD OVER THE AREA MON...THEN
MOVES EWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TUE. ANY ADDITION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MON AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND UPON
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...OR LACK THEREOF...THIS AFTERNOON. AT
ANY RATE...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY TUE...AND BECOME
MORE PRONOUNCED WED AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN WEST OF
THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL STILL YIELD PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS MON
INTO WED NIGHT. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD RETURN PERHAPS AS EARLY
AS TUE...THOUGH MORE LIKELY ON WED.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER NRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA MIDDAY THUR. THE UPPER LOW WILL FILL AND LIFT RAPIDLY
NEWD INTO NRN NEW MEXICO EARLY FRI MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THUR GENERALLY NW OF A HANNAGAN MEADOW-TUCSON-SELLS LINE.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES THUR NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY NORTH
OF TUCSON. THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ARIZONA. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN FRI NIGHT-SAT UNDER WLY/SWLY FLOW ALOFT.

HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY-TUE WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F
ABOVE NORMAL. A COOLING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR WED-THUR...WITH HIGH
TEMPS THUR TO BE ABOUT 3-7 DEGS F BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT WARMER TEMPS
TO RETURN SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/18Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 6-10K FT AGL ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA MAY OCCUR AS WELL. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR A
FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT NWLY 10-15 KTS IN THE
VICINITY OF KDUG/KSAD THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
LIGHT TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS INTO MONDAY...THEN GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS SHOULD RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF TUCSON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS





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