Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 250031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Apr 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 2326 (N19W96, Bxo/beta)
produced several low-levels C flares as it rotated off the west limb,
including the largest event of the period, a C2 at 24/0843 UTC. Region
2324 (N19W72, Hsx/alpha) produced a C1/Sf at 24/1927 UTC but exhibited
decay throughout the period. Region 2331 (S10W33, Dai/beta-gamma) showed
growth in its intermediate spots as well as an increase in magnetic
complexity but remained quiet. All other regions on the disk were either
stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-Minor) flares over the next three days (25-27 Apr).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate to high levels throughout the period and reached a maximum flux
value of 1180 pfu at 24/1830 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
returned to background levels after being slightly enhanced for the past
few days.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at low to moderate levels with a chance for high levels over the
next three days (25-27 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a nominal solar wind
environment. Solar wind velocity decreased from initial values near 415
km/s to end-of-period values near 370 km/s. IMF total field values were
steady near 4 nT to 5 nT and Bz was mostly positive throughout the
period. The phi angle was steady in a positive (away from the Sun) solar
sector orientation.

.Forecast...
Solar wind velocity is expected to remain near background levels over
the next three days (25-27 Apr). A solar sector boundary change
(positive to negative) is expected on day one (25 Apr) with extended
periods of southward Bz possible.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period under a nominal
solar wind regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels (Below
G1-Minor) on day one (25 Apr) due to a solar sector boundary change
(positive to negative). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on
days two and three (26-27 Apr).



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